Hey /biz/, do any of you guys do political betting?
Isn't it possible to get a guaranteed return right now on the Democratic nomination?
Hillary has 5/6 odds, put £100 on her
Bernie has 7/1 odds, put £20 on him
O'Malley has 200/1 odds, put £5 on him
>Multiply all amounts above by whatever X number
>Guaranteed to win money unless they all die of heart attacks
Am I right or am I right?
I think the numbers are going to adjust really quick, but you might be able to take advantage of it right now because separate candidates are undervalued at separate sites
Note how the percentages add to less than 100% in my OP pic, which leads me to believe there is undervaluing
I think you get your original bet back plus five sixths of your original bet
Or maybe I'm retarded, that's why I'm seeing if anyone thinks it could work
So you think they are offering a bet where the best case scenario is that you lose money?
6 euro bet at 5/6 means you get profit of 5.
all investing is gambling, bookies set the odds so they win no matter what in the long term, but any individual can win. some people are pros, and they spend most of their time creating new accounts online with different names/addresses etc because bookies keep banning them
>tfw by the time Hillary gets decent odds to make a profit, I will be too terrified of her losing to Bernie to actually bet
I'm already nervous desu
When betting odds are 5/6, you win $5 for every $6 you bet. This is the most likely result in the eyes of whomever set that line, because your return is less than 1:1. In OP's hypothetical, it would work like this:
$100 on Hillary to win at 5/6 means you win $83.33, total of $183.33, minus the $25 you laid on the other 2. Net gain = $158.33
$20 on Bernie pays you $140 if he wins at 7/1, $160 minus $105 = $55 net gain.
$5 on O'Malley at 200/1 pays $1,000, minus $120 = $885 net gain.
>>tl;dr odds are set to influence behavior and minimize risk to the house
The odds are determined by the market. The probabilities given in the OP pictures are determined by aggregate of the odds on the ~2 dozen gambling sites.
So basically it's a decentralized system where a lot of different factors lead into the probabilities which occasionally allows for opportunities to capitalize
here's an easy way to remember it: you bet the amount on the RIGHT to win the amount on the LEFT.
in this case, if you bet 6 dollars and the evil ghoul gets the nomination, you will get your bet back PLUS an addition 5 dollars.
do this if you are a moron who wants to go broke. ironically enough, if mr. FREE SHIT DUDE becomes president, that'll end up happening anyway.
if you like money, take out a nice fat bet on donald trump becoming the next POTUS. the writing is on the wall and the only place you'll hear otherwise is on the internet where the online heroes like to be contrarian so much that they won't even go out to vote when the corporate shill clinton gets the demo nod.