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2016-01-21 02:34:55 Post No. 1052003
Post No. 1052003
Habbening memer checking in.
I realize that from a finance perspective there isn't necessarily cause for panic quite yet.
But habbeners tend to view things from an economics angle rather than finance. And theres a lot of economic reason to believe that we are tetering on the edge of a crash.
The finance world can adjust to cheap oil. The real world economies that stock exchanges exist in probably cannot.
One of the only booming industries in the US was oil, but the US industry isn't likely to be profitable under $30. Since saudi production is $9/bbl, the US Industry will mostly likely liquidate. But where is that capital going? What's the next bull market? Biotech, maybe. We'll see if that pans out in the next couple days, but I have doubts. Green energy could probably boom if oil wasn't so cheap.
The reason we are in this predicamint is because the Federal Reserve's monetary policy encourages these booms and busts. The fed has kept rates absurdly low for years. The only way they could stop free fall in 2008 was to cause an unnatural amount of speculation. This gives the illusion of growth. Cheap money eats into savings to fuel bubbles. You can only do this for so long. Eventually there are no savings left. Thats the situation we are in right now. We've burned through all of our savings on boom & bust markets. The jig is up and now we have to face the reality that resources in our economy have been atrociously allocated for decades.
Not as fucked as europe though. The US and Asia can probably weather this. They'll come out beaten and scared, but they'll make it. IMO Europe is going to really suffer to its core in the coming years. The continent could emerge fundementally different.