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Stop being pussies.
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You are currently reading a thread in /biz/ - Business & Finance

Thread replies: 47
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Stop being pussies.
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>>1051119
Oh wow, when you put it like that, credit collapse and high unemployment dont look so bad!
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>>1051128
>credit collapse
Not happening.
>high unemployment
Not happening.

Stop being pussies.
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/fit/ checking in. can someone explain this to a meathead like myself pls
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>>1051139
you're poor and will stay that way regardless of the market
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>>1051139
Steroids are bad for you and you'll be forever envious of /biz masterclass. Go work on your calves riding a bike to McDuc.
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>>1051139
It's pretty simple: bear markets happen periodically. They tend to be short, small, and meaningless in the long run. They are dwarfed by the gains realized in bull markets. They are not always accompanied by recessions, meaning they can happen even when the economy is strong.

The world is not ending. Buy-and-hold is still the only proven way to grow your wealth.
>>
You're right, if you make 100% of your money from trading, a bear market presents, in fact, a lot of opportunity,

But for most, people, investing is a long term plan, and most income is earned from labor.

To call the 08 crash "short and meaningless" is to have a myopic view of the economy.
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>>1051139
the red part on the graph is when the world entered negative territory on the stock market. the blue is when we were positive.

As one can see, the worst drop ever, occurred in the pre 1930ish area. We recovered from that, and that is what OP is talking about. Everything up to that point pales in comparison AND we recovered in time.
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>>1051261
>To call the 08 crash "short and meaningless" is to have a myopic view of the economy.
The '08 stock market crash was short and meaningless. The '08 housing market crash and decimation of the financial sector was significant, though ultimately short-lived as well.

The stock market is the stock market. Don't confuse it with other agents in the domestic or world economy.
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>>1051226
>They are not always accompanied by recessions
The key that half the people on the board today screaming about this "depression" we are entering don't realize. Where's the employment contraction, guys? Where's the negative GDP? Where are the companies going belly up?
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>>1051448
employment figures are a lagging indicator of economic health. people get laid off after the economy tanks, not before
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Just waiting when to press the buy-button. Not trying to catch any falling knives, I'll be happy to wait for a decent month that shows we are coming off of this. Seems like everybody is really trigger happy at the moment to sell?
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>>1051119
this graph is so misleading.
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>>1051448
you are so ignorant. employment is a lagging indicator. it doesn't signal a recession, it's a result of it.
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>>1051119
Post the full picture, please.
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>>1051119
finally some sense.

I'll start worrying when the god damn indexes still aren't at fucking record highs

how anyone can feed their children with the s&p only at the record highs of aug 2014 is beyond me! /s
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>>1051511
5% , lowest in 7 years, wanna try again permabear?
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>>1051498
>this graph is so misleading
Insightful comment, fag. You've persuaded absolutely no one with your encyclopedic insight and analysis.
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>>1051548
>Post the full picture, please.

>what is reverse image search?
>wow, that is the full picture
>why are you a fag?
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>>1051658
Okay. I'll bite.

1. It's a log graph
2. Your portfolio can't ever go down by more than 100%. If you were to buy at the peak of some of these markets, you may have had ZERO returns for over a decade if you had held
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>>1051667
>1. It's a log graph
It uses the same scale for the bull and bear markets, so your criticism is moot. The magnitude and duration of each period is clearly labelled. Are you arguing that the facts are not true? Because you sound stupid either way.

>2. Your portfolio can't ever go down by more than 100%.
Strawman much? Or are you suggesting that the power of compound growth is something that we should ignore because it suits your argument?

Also, why do you faggots keep point to extreme cases like putting all of your lifelong wealth into the market at a single inopportune point in time (as if such a thing were even possible)? Talk about misleading. You fags can't articulate cogent arguments against long-term investing, so instead you make of Boogeymen to scare children. Fuck off.
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>>1051658
anyone who has taken any statistics math class can see why it's misleading. hell, I fucking learned about that shit in pre-algebra. your very ignorant if you can't realize why it's misleading. it's so fucking obvious too. there's no units other than years and it doesn't specify what it's charting.
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>>1051578
are you retarded?
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>things aren't that bad
>everything is fine
>unemployment is low!

Pro-tip: They've been changing the definition of "unemployed" every few years for the past decade or so. This precludes literally tens of millions of people from being considered "unemployed" since they gave up looking for jobs that just no longer exist.

The % out of work in pic related includes both the unemployment and non-participation in the labor force figures.

We have never had this high of unemployment over the entire length of recorded "non-participation". Probably since the Great Depression.

Keep in mind that that's a percentage of the total population - if I were to only show working age adults (16-64), the rate would be much, much worse.
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>>1051771
>It uses the same scale for the bull and bear markets, so your criticism is moot

Cool. I explained why that's a problem in the second point.

>Strawman much? Or are you suggesting that the power of compound growth is something that we should ignore because it suits your argument?

No. I'm suggesting that buying appropriately valued stocks is far more important than you seem to think. There is a thing called value investing that many intelligent investors subscribe to. Stocks have been overvalued for a while. We're in the 99th percentile of the CAPE ratio which means it's probably a bad time to buy, and probably a good time to sell.

http://dqydj.net/a-calculator-for-the-cyclically-adjusted-pe-ratio-cape-in-any-timeframe/
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>>1051784
Kek. You spent the time to type a reply but couldn't even articulate what's wrong with the chart (nothing, by the way). What a fucking retard.

No scale other than years? Seriously? It's a chart of S&P500 performance over time. Of course it's labeled by years. And it clearly says that its a comparison of increases after a low (bull market) and falls after a high (bear market).

Why are on this board if you can't read English?
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>>1051902
There's no evidence that value investing beats diversified investing, except in the limited case of small caps. And even that didn't work out at all 2015-2016 YTD.

>Stocks have been overvalued for a while
Only a faggot would pull out Shiller *after* the week we've had. Shiller's been telling you to sell since 2012. If you actually believe and follow what you say, then you missed 150% gains in the market. Fuck off.
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>yfw you're too young and won't attain a high enough capital until the economy starts to boom again
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>>1051907
obvious bait. try being a little bit more subtle next time bud. have fun trolling the next sucker who comes in this thread.
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>>1051119
be greedy when others are fearful
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by the way OP, this is a real chart. see >>1051865
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>>1051920
>There's no evidence that value investing beats diversified investing, except in the limited case of small caps. And even that didn't work out at all 2015-2016 YTD.

Wrong. I'm not going to do your homework for you.

>Only a faggot would pull out Shiller *after* the week we've had.

Smart people have been talking about this for a while. CAPE is just a metric that has been proven to be the best determinant for entering bull/bear markets, but OKAY. AND we're in the 99th percentile?

Fuck off.
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>>1051907
still no units other than years. do you think performance is a unit?
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>>1051119
>>1051458
>>1051951

BUY THE DIP, GOY
>>
I'm selling my flat on April 2017 (Tax reasons). I will get around 220,000€. I will have an additional 30-40,000€. Will then be a good time to invest in stocks?
> inb4 can't predict
I know you can't predict the market but since the crash hasn't happened yet but probably will soon. It normally takes some 6 months to reach the bottom right?
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So is this the secret to making money? Fixed income assets when we're high and converting it to stocks when we're low?

Time to make some money boys.
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>>1052029
>Fixed income assets
Such as?
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>>1051955
You're a moron. If you think TA can help you get in and out of the markets, you're gonna have a bad time.

Stop using voodoo to predict events that have already occurred. No one's impressed that you can remember the past. Predict the future, accurately, and you'll get some respect.

Your metrics would have put you out of the markets in 2012. At least be intellectually honest that you're nothing but a hindsight hero. Fuck off.
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>>1051980
>implying the housing market isn't about to implode

You won't get shit for your flat
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>>1051960
What units are you talking about retard? There are no units on the Y axis, as I already explained to you. It shows the multiple by which the stock market will go up or down from the beginning of each bull and bear market, respectively. Fucking duh.

What do I have to waste my time teaching children?
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>>1052073
lol
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>>1052063

I'm up 40% this year with TA, poor faggot
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>>1052110
Congrats on your $40 gainz, fag. Now please shhh-shhh ... adults are talking here.
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>>1051578

that's obama's unemployment number, dig a bit deeper into the stats and you'll see ~15% of the workforce straight up retired 20-30 years early due to not being able to find any decent work after the recession. a lot of people can't even enter the work force either out of school now, we're truly fucked unless companies go back to hiring based on merit and not overworking the one retard who had connections.
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>>1051119
This chart shows, that we are at the same point as 1973. Another gamechanger for the finance world like abandoning the gold standard 1973 has to come, but as I see it thete is non availiable anymore. The central banks have almost played all their cards in hand.
There will either be massiv money output through right out government funding programms through the printing press and therefor accellerating massiv inflation in the mid run or there will be a return to pre fed times with gigantic shifts in the economy. Mountains of invesments burned, because of unsaistainability.
I think the first option is more likely, but will probably buy us like 10 years more before the real problem shows itself again.
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>>1051428
watch out guys, we have a CFA over here
Thread replies: 47
Thread images: 6
Thread DB ID: 449125



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