I thought we were supposed to be on the road to fucking recovery from 2007/08
ahahah dumbass faggots are realizing all the bandages from 2008 are about to completely unravel
Poor situations in other countries, few jobs being created, most new jobs are low paying, oil production wars, dying middle class, wealth rapidly concentrating into fewer hands. We need new industries to pop up that employ lots of people, but this rarely happens except mostly for outsourcing.
So why would it implode now, is the time a recession happens arbitrary, or just when debt reaches a certain number and we cant borrow more. Why is it not possible to forecast an economic recession, never got this
Also a general question, what happens if people stop buying stocks, but only use the service that they provide, like if tomorrow everyone sold their stocks but services will still be provided
The industry im hyped about is space. Rapidly lowering launch costs, more launch facilities, more launch providers, investment by NASA, a favorable bipartisan congress, rocket reusability, and competition from china are all good signs. The real strength here is that because of federal laws, these jobs cant be outsourced.
>like if tomorrow everyone sold their stocks but services will still be provided
Couldn't happen. You'd need someone to buy them. You can't just sell stocks. It may seem that way, but that's simply due to the liquidity of the market. If absolutely everyone decided to sell, stocks would essentially be worthless because nobody would be paying for them.
>Why is it not possible to forecast an economic recession, never got this
We can predict them, usually by looking at what led to previous recessions and seeing if they're similar to what's going on now/in the near future. Think of it like a weatherman's job; sometimes there's all the signs of a coming storm that just passes by. There's signs like excess speculation, turmoil in certain integral markets among many others that signal a crash/panic/recession coming on.
Stocks are an enormous aspect of business. It's literally selling ownership of your company for capital, which can be used to do whatever your business does. If they could get by running off purely operational income, they wouldn't be a publicly traded company in the first place.
>not knowing who has caused every single crisis in the last 100 years
>"road to recovery"
It's going to be long and painful one
Recessions happen when money can't be thrown fast enough to fix shit. Last time it was real estate and people couldn't throw money to cover the costs of the asset bubble. There's a lot of reasons for this recession, but there is another debt bubble.
It happens all the time. look at the bank balance sheets. when the banks run out of money to lend, and we can't sell bonds fast enough to cover the inflation necessary, the capital markets dry up fast. once that happens the economic gears grind to a halt and we have to kill babies, to make it smooth as butter.
Pic related. wonderful economic and banking allegory.
number one reason is oil tycoons overseas in the middle east that don't want to lower production of oil in order to make oil companies in the USA go out of buisness. However, the usa companies are resisting doing so by implementing other methods of company protection, thus keeping oil supply extremely high, much higher than the world needs.
So we are at a stand off. Will foreign oil tycoons starve their people of resources or will the oil companies merge in order to protect themselves first while dragging everyone else along?
Predicting a recession would be like predicting the exact 1/100th of a second where enough people have stopped clapping at a concert that everyone stops. One person stops, then the others around , and from there it propagates in waves.
You can't predict recessions because they are not a mechanical consequence of the state of the market.
A recession is a psychological snowball of people who want to get their money back for their assets, because they think the probability of assets growing is too low. Those who they take the money from, in turn pull out their own money for elsewhere, and so on...
The US isn't facing a recession.
Pretty much every other major economy is facing low growth or is potentially recessionary.
Could growth in the US be better? Sure. But remember while you experience 2-4% growth per quarter, the rest of the world is tanking. There isn't a better place to invest right now.
But since oil is such a business necessity for day to day operations and for people in general why does it drop to begin with, if anything youd assume that this necessity cant drop in price
high supply, low price
basic supply/demand graphs senpai
food and water are also necessities and their prices can go up/down as well
opec's flooding the market to try and shut out competition and taking us all with em
>high supply, low price
I dont live in america so im not really aware on things but, I thought a couple of years back or even still to this day people are shilling the idea that were running out of oil, was this a meme or is it actually true
Did murica just randomly find some goldmine of oil or something
>food and water are also necessities and their prices can go up/down as well
Isn't the only factor that really affects them is inflation, assuming that we arent preparing for doomsday and there are 20 chickens and 5 cows left for food [is food shortage really a thing or is it a meme?]
sorry if I sound retarded, I live in NZ so im pretty sheltered from everything, don't watch the news or pay attention to any forms of social media just 4chan, so thats probably why
That was a fear from the 90s similar to landfill scare that forced recycling down our throats.
The US has shifted to more fuel efficient cars, and other sources of energy like natural gas, plus has a shit ton of oil in the gulf coast,
The amount of energy the US imports has dropped over 50% in the last decade, and the US today is the third largest exporter of oil.
>why does it drop to begin with
Saudis want to kill US oil, as well as keep their position in the world market with all of these new producers. I wonder who'll be there to pick it all up when it starts going out of business.
They usually are.
>How dare you accuse us? We'll show how non-powerful we are by barring you everywhere and ruining every professional career you ever try
Every time. It's pretty funny how nobody seems to connect the two. It's almost like a movie where the villain sneaks out with the gold and the guards look right over the bush he's hiding behind going "Duuuuhr where is he?" as a trail of gold coins lead right back there..
Fun random fact that I stumbled upon the other day. The JDL extorted money from Tupac, Eazy-E and others. Page 25-26. https://vault.fbi.gov/Tupac%20Shakur%20/Tupac%20Shakur%20Part%201%20of%201/view
>Did murica just randomly find some goldmine of oil or something
They did, actually. American shale.
here is the guy who reportedly won the powerball last wednesday
ALERT! This thread has been contaminated by /pol/ groupthink and is now under QUARANTINE!
Please stay back from the yellow tape and DO NOT RESPOND.
When you say Saudis want to kill US oil, you mean trying to monopolize the industry by taking them out of business via lowering their prices which affects global oil prices since they are major exporters to the point where the US companies cannot make a profit anymore from exporting oil, yes?
I just want to clarify because I'm not very familiar with macro aspect of things
>Literally named Schlomo
Oy, but it is a miracle truly! I bet his grandma was holohoaxed three times, too, the poor bastard. No repayment is enough to compensate this poor jewish man for the enormous loss (and that of the other six million, never forget), but this small tribute is a beginning, at least.
I'm just speculating. But they've built a lot of their society on constant oil profits, so it's hurting them too. They're not doing it for fun.
They're just pumping it out of the ground, so any more expensive method won't survive a price fall like now. Eventually, more expensive producers will default on their loans and get knocked out. Then larger companies can sweep in and buy all of the infrastructure up for pennies.
So Saudi Arabia is trying to cuck US oil, goes full retard in the process, and we have to have them as allies because shit that happened in the Cold War?
/biz/ was formed when /pol/ shaved a part of its nose off, to appear more aryan. True fact.
The cryptocoin kikes fell, rolled, stood up and declared the new land to be /biz/-super serious business ventures and quality threads only. Totally not a containment board (protip: every board is a containment board) for cryptocoins and get-rich-with-forex-generals. No Sir, only QUALITY!
So assuming you are right, was what I said wrong? you said theyre just pumping it out of the ground but also mentioned they are trying to kill US oil which seems like an aggressive approach as if theyre actively doing something, what is this 'action' that they are performing to kill US oil?
>we have to have them as allies because shit that happened in the Cold War?
No. They play a key part in maintaining US hegemony. The Petrodollar and the USD as world reserve currency are the two main factors that ensure that the US doesn't sink back into obscurity, like the dying empire it is.
Saudi arabia and others (OPEC), but mainly the Saudis (who are old friends/best buddies with both the British monarchy, and later friends of the US elite like the Bushes) produce a lot of oil. They've basically built their entire society around it, because they're arabs and can't really produce anything of actual value no matter how much they tried.
The deal is that the US protects them, and in exchange for that, they sell their oil exclusively in dollars. Anyone who has ever tried to sell them in anything else, has been invaded and conquered by the US (Gadaffi, latest). Same with non ZOG-controlled banks, any country that isn't part of the US-led global monetary system is a target. Try gold or any other non-fiat, and you get invaded/replaced.
I'm not sure what the goal is. Could be part of some larger geopolitical plan to drive out competitors to the monopoly (US orders), could just be them wanting to maintain their position.
The action is to keep selling/pumping in a way that drastically lowers oil prices. They didn't adjust production, they kept steaming ahead. It's not something they did as an oversight, or by accident. It's hurting them as well, since they rely on oil more than most countries.
Our alliance with Saudi goes beyond that. Their entire kingdom was allowed by the British when they helped the Saud family remove kebab (ottoman empire) during WWI. The country is named after them. The West (Britain and then the USA) largely helped them to develop, and then petrodollars blah blah blah.
>I'm not sure what the goal is.
low oil prices also encourage people to buy more gas-guzzling cars, since gas prices are relatively low
they're hoping to just starve out the new american oil producers since they're an actual threat, by undercutting the competition
if they can get them to close up shop that's good enough since the shale mines ain't cheap to start up
the saudis have mountains of cash saved up anyway, an absurd amount from selling oil, and it's not like they give a shit about their populace so they can afford to do it
Not enough to run their entire country for too long. They can run it long enough to survive this, but they have to dig up a lot money they didn't necessarily want to have to dig for just yet.
>Saudi Arabia to run out of cash in less than 5 years
>If oil stays around $50 a barrel, most countries in the region will run out of cash in five years or less
>Low oil prices will wipe out an estimated $360 billion from the region this year alone
>Huge budget surpluses are quickly swinging to massive deficits as oil prices have crashed to around $45 currently from over $100 last year.
>Many of these countries are being forced to tap into rainy day funds to weather the storm.
>Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil producer, needs to sell oil at around $106 to balance its budget
>The kingdom barely has enough fiscal buffers to survive five years of $50 oil
Nobody's closing shop. They'll be bought up by people who play along to get along, instead of actually competing.
Threadly reminder that /pol/ is the second largest board on this site. Larger than /v/, and easily dwarfing something as insignificant as /g/.
It used to be filled with forex and cryptothreads. No admin gives a shit about /b/, but /pol/ is heavily moderated despite its traffic.
>Not enough to run their entire country for too long. They can run it long enough to survive this, but they have to dig up a lot money they didn't necessarily want to have to dig for just yet.
well yeah i didn't say it was a smart plan, that's just what they're hoping to do
it can't work nowadays in a real global economy and the middle east isn't the only source of oil anymore
russia's feeling the pinch as well, they've at least got natural gas to play around with and keep importing to europe if they can
all of the middle east is in for a rude awakening when they realize it's unsustainable, and i can't fathom how bad it's gonna get over there
So the real question is; What is going to supersede oil in the future?
At the rate it's going, oil will either now remain relatively cheap and or be phased out by the time it gets back to higher prices anyway. With China looking more towards electric cars to help reduce the deathly smog that's literally giving everyone in China cancer and everyone else wanting to swap because fuel is still shit expensive for some reason.
Either way, as it stands currently, there is now an excess oversupply of oil and constantly reducing demand, so somethings gotta give.
Race to Pandora for Unobtainium? Or, is it time for some more wars to feed the economy with delicious arms money?
>What is going to supersede oil in the future?
Probably coal, natural gas, maybe some nuke but they won't be replacing 1 billion internal combustion engines to build 1 billion electric cars, rare earth metals will deplete long before that and battery tech is plateauing.
You often see people confuse technology for an energy source, it is a massive energy sink.
It is looking unlikely that any new energy sources will even come close to replacing oil, wind and solar have niches.
This is actually just a dip in a demand destruction cycle, what +$100 oil really does to the global economy. We eat oil.
>No one is exporting
this guy is getting it right
we're in the middle of a huge deflationary spiral.
China is just the most obvious piece in this.
For fucks sake, the "new normal" was just another symptom of the problem
I agree. The scary part is the only real solution is a single world currency. Especially if all currencies (the important ones anyway) implode at the same time. That's what's next imo.
>/pol/ is the second largest board on this site
Which corroborates my viewpoint that 4chan is most visited by retards, autists, and 2nd world losers.
Stop singing the praises of /pol/ faggot. You just make yourself look stupid. The myth of the intelligent unappreciated 4chan user is a sad, debunked myth.
You are right.
The major deflationary spiral is getting worse too.
Despite all the QE. or rather because of all the QE, mutual funds and pension related funds can't touch the bond market. QE artifically consumes bonds and ruins any natural pricing whilst creating surplus currency. That current is being pumped straight into assets rather than circulating in the money supply. All that surplus QE money is going straight into stocks, options and driving an enormous stock bubble.
But stocks are just signals, and all that value which was artificially added to the books by QE is now being destroyed. It is MV = PQ. Money supply has grown, but the only people who benefited from QE were speculators. All the smart money right now has moved short yen. BoJ has stopped QE, as it has run out of bonds to purchase domestically.
Basically, we are fucked. Great depression 2.0 here we come.
This. It's textbook business. If you are threatened by a smaker company, buy it up. If that's impossible, undercut it and operate at a loss as they will turn belly up before you.
It really isn't any more complicated than that.
The recession has been around since 2008, if you bothered to read the OP. That's a whole 3 years before the Syrian civil war and a few more years before the refugee crisis.
BTW, the US + allies during the 2003 Iraq war should pay damages to the EU for causing this crisis by not doing a proper occupation of Iraq.
Know this: Stormfaggotry is a contradiction. They don't want to go FULL BLOWN STALIN on the economy, but they like to yakk about muh Bulius Ebola-antimaterialism. Stormfags want to have closed borders and "enough" economic growth. And it's true that some countries have managed to do that. But when a country manages to do that, it's only a fluke. Happens to be at the right place at the right time and so on. Also cheating by devaluing money.
Worst Korea with it's horrible Failsung would never have been this "success story" if it had to conform to the same business standards as in the US or in Europe.
All it takes to make the super shipyards in Worst Korea to go down is when the indians learns to build ships instead of scrapping them.
Stormfags, bitte Raus!