How do you see the long term pricing of Oil? Do you think that oil is going to continuously drop. From what I've gathered by looking at the pricing over the last few months is that it seems to fluctuate quiet a lot. Are there any major events that I might not be aware of?
I'd like to see anybody actually explain in concrete terms the bull case for oil.
Because there isn't one. The North American supply is locked in, ready to be extracted by whomever is left after the bond collapses and dividend cuts and whatever bankruptcies have to happen, but the supply doesn't change because of any of that, the oil doesn't care who fracks it up.
Plus, the industry now knows it's own and all it's competitors per-rig cost to operate because the rigs, which are tracked by industry groups every day, were shut down in breakeven price order during the decline.
Libya has a million barrels locked in, ready to push down even further when those ragheads finally get their failed state shit together, which with oil is never forever to wait for, and demand is going nowhere for as far as the devalued yuan can see.
So unless KSA's elephants suddenly turn out to be giant frauds full of seawater, or North Korea launches an actual nuke tipped missile, or El Putino invades a NATO member who invokes Article 4 and 5 at the same time, there is no bull case for oil for at least the next two years.
There is a power game being played by the US, China, Russia, Saudi, and Iran. They're manipulating oil prices to defeat their enemies. The US is actually doing worse than they're reporting. China is being raped by low oil prices, ballooning debt and devaluing Yuan. Russia needs the oil budget, but somehow they're still kicking. They may have a secret funding operations that no one knows about. Saudi Arabia is taking out loans to meet their day to day government operations, and now they're in talking of privatizing their state-owned oil assets because they need liquid injection. Iran might be the only "winner" they get to export their oil supply to the world and receive imports. Someone or somewhat is locking all these powers into some kind of war.
>anon the master of geopolitics of /biz/
Like I will listen to you. You haven't said anything, just hurr durr you iz wrong. Which is very fucking common on this shitty website. I love coming onto to this website once of month to get my monthly dose of hilarious retardation on this site.
They run on pure fatalism. A western mind can not fathom how strange Russia is. A western country having to go through 1/5 of the daily bullshit in Russia would collapse within the week.