Which countries are going to gain the most if the oil prce still the same as now?
And which one will fall?
Places like Japan and the UK will benefit just not as much as you would think (shipping costs will always be a huge cost influence for "islands"
The entire middle east is going to fucking burn if prices stay low for more than a year or 2 and before someone says it, no, that is NOT a good thing, not when multiple countries have nuclear weapons
Its not coming back this year unless Saudi Arabia and Iran decide they are going to kill each other.
Smart money is on oil being below 21 a barrel by the end of the year (another 33% drop from now) Some are even calling for it to hit 10 dollars a barrel once Iran and the US start exporting
The US and Canada won't get much benefit from the price alone. Any increase in spending citizens will get will be countered by the government losing a shit load of tax money (which in most cases are a % instead of a fixed number)
>Saudi Arabia and Iran decide they are going to kill each other.
If oil stays this low through the year watch out for things in Russia. They have higher production costs than most of the middle east and they are throwing their money stockpiles away starting wars. Their economy was already slowing down and their currency is going bonkers.
Saudi arabia will go bankrupt in the next couple of years if it continues to sell oil at the prices it is currently. But it wont go that far. OPEC is playing a giant game of chicken and the arabs are waiting for everyone else to cry uncle. At this rate though i think the arabs are gonna give in first because they stand to lose the most. Iran is going from selling almost no oil to rentry into the global market. Doesn't really matter how low oil goes for them because anything is better than when they weren't allowed to trade. Arabs were always fucking stupid too and more concerned about appearances rather than doing the rational thing. They are willing to burn their own money as long as it makes them look tough and powerful. Just look at dubai, it is the perfect representation of arab mentality.
But maybe i'm biased because im iranian.
Yeah pretty much. The funny thing is the same backwards ass hicks living in the middle of buttfuck nowhere America that supported the bombing of agrabah have their exact counterparts back in Iran; dumbass hillbillies that chant death to america. The only difference is that by my rough estimate, about 5-10% of irans population actually believes in "death to america" and the whole anti-west bullshit while a significantly greater percentage of americans appear to support the anti-middle east rhetoric. The problem is iran has mandatory 2 year military service which to the average american looks like the population at large is ready to wage war against the west. In reality their mostly just young guys looking for a pay cheque or to serve their 2 years, and go home after to binge watch their bootleg copies of game of thrones or play cs-go with their buds.
Iran will probably figure out that their oil is worth more left in the ground for later.
Once the easy oil in Iraq and Syria is all plundered, high cost frackers are out of business and strategic reserves are drawn down, oil will get back to $100.
I have a weird tin foil hat theory...i think for all this ZOMG IRAN GONNA BRING A BAJILLION BARRELS ONLINE IN 20 MINUTES talk, that Iranian oil has already been on the black market and hasn't been officially "countrd" towards world production/storage numbers.
I don't think they'll actually do much "turning on the spigot" as they will just start shipping oil through official channels.