>almost to a billion
Anyone else feeling the urge to buy in? I've never gambled and have good financial standing.
Pic related: this could be you
an obvious exception is people who have won the lottery
>tfw last night the first four numbers I checked all came up and I thought i`d won 66 million GBP but then no more came up and I only won 120
Still pretty happy
Caucasian, you are wrong. I've bought tickets for millionaires who've employed me and I've stood in line with the mayor (and millionaire) of a city in Texas to buy lottery tickets. We had a nice conversation, too.
This, people don't even dream anymore when they buy lottery tickets, its pointless.
I've bought about 60 to 70 lotto tickets (Megamillions and Powerball before the price increase) over the past few years. Never won once so I just stopped playing. This is on computer generated numbers at the store mind you.
I know my dad plays though, so at least I have a shot at the jackpot. I'm just not gonna waste my own money on it.
>The expected value of a $2 powerball ticket is about $-1.58 on average.
>The expected value of the cash payout is always negative
>The expected value of the annuity becomes positive above ~350-400m, without figuring taxes
>When you figure taxes of about 50% the annuity is essentially never positive
The lottery is never a good play. Ever.
>>The expected value of a $2 powerball ticket is about $-1.58 on average.
>Can someone explain this in layman’s terms?
It means every time you buy a ticket you lose a dollar 58 cents, on average.
>Lotto Gods will let me win soon, yes?
No. Every ticket you buy @ $2 should at those figures return ~42c, for a net return of -79%.
The more money you invest, the more you lose (to the tune of ~79% of every dollar).
Expected value is the average gain or loss of any game.
You take the probability of winning and the cost of playing.
Heads or tails is 50/50.
If the cost of playing is 1 USD.
Expected value is +1/2*1 for all the winning cases and -1/2*1 for all the losing cases.
EV equals 0. Its a zero sum game because of all the money gained by one party falls into the pocket of the other player.
Now the lotto. All the money from the losers DO NOT GO into the winners pocket. The math is more complex and combinatorial because of the structure of the game but the basic EV formula doesnt change.
In the positive gain of the equation, are substracted the fees from running the lotto and the taxes.
Its essentially like playing heads or tails from earlier but instead of winning 1 USD haldf the time you win 1 USD minus 0.2c of fees and 0.1 of taxes but still lose the full 1 USD in the losing cases.
EV becomes negative.
DO NOT PLAY OVERLY NEGATIVE EV GAMES.
Roulette and black jack fall into that category.
Lotto is for fucking idiots with hope. Its quite tragic.
BECAUSE IF YOU LOSE YOU LOSE ALL OF YOUR TICKETS BUT IF YOU WIN YOU WIN THE VALUE OF ALL YOUR TICKETS MINUS THE CUT THE GUY ORGANIZING IS TAKING AND MINUS AGAIN WHAT THE GOV IS TAKING.
Again imagine heads or tails against me.
Heads you win 100, I lose 100.
Tails I WIN 200, you lose 200.
Would you play me?
You could live in bumfuck nowhere and the chances of winning a town-only raffle are fucking horrible. Now blow up the perspective and you're one person in a country-wide drawing. Even if you dumped $2000 on tickets, you still won't win.
>DO NOT PLAY OVERLY NEGATIVE EV GAMES.
>Roulette and black jack fall into that category.
Is there any casino game with a positive EV then? Because last I checked blackjack has the lowest odds in favor of the house winning.
if I win it, as a britbong, can I avoid federal taxes by filling out a W-2 form and get the whole lump sum tax free? (will use a website to buy in a state that doesn't charge state withholding taxes either)
with significant rollovers lotteries can become +EV (albeit the distribution is heavily biased towards the jackpot) - though technically if you lived for ever and only played the lottery when it was +EV after multiple rollovers you'd be a net winner
blackjack can become +EV with card counting, you're likely to be banned these days
you can play poker obviously if you have sufficient skill to beat both the game you're in and the rake the house is charging
there are other methods of advantage play out there
For a skilled player; poker *can* be a positive EV game even though the casino takes a rake. It's only possible because the game is not 100 percent luck based.
A third of the game is psychology and odds of winning hand vs bet ratios.
Yes, you are quite right about card counting and poker but I was considering card counting died due to security technology and enforcement..
As for rollover lotteries, I don't want to say something stupid but it depends on which EV we calculate.. If you are strictly speaking about one player entering at one particular moment, then kind of yes.
But evaluating the game as a whole, the rollover effect of the sum being larger and larger is only due to the first draws of that lottery not finding any winner.
I'm intuitively sure that if you actually calculate the EV of the sum of the players until someone wins, then it becomes -EV again.
In fact rollover lottery is +EV if when no one wins it and it becomes -EV when someone wins it if that makes sense.If you calculate the EV of the entire pools of players that played it against "the house" then it immediately becomes clear their expected val is negative.
The only way to win is cheat or a mistake by the house.
>In fact rollover lottery is +EV if when no one wins it and it becomes -EV when someone wins it if that makes sense.
that doesn't make sense and you need to rethink it a bit more
lotteries can and do become +EV when multiple rollovers occur and gambling syndicates have previously taken advantage of these +EV oppertunities
what are you actually refering to
for example this:
mentions federal withholding tax - but isn't federal withholding tax going to depend on the tax treaties in place between the US and various other nations
for example UK poker players in the world series avoid US taxes with a W-2G form due to UK-US tax treaties, unless there is some special law/exemption for lotteries then why would it be different here hypothetically (tis rather unlikely that a UK resident will win it but is possible)
>but isn't federal withholding tax going to depend on the tax treaties in place between the US and various other nations
No, because withholding isn't a tax assessment. It's a prepayment of estimated tax. If the lottery wants to impose a flat 30% withholding on non-US citizen's they can.
If you believe that you owe none of that tax under the laws of the United States, then you need to file a tax return with the IRS showing zero tax liability alongside your substantial prepayment. If you're right, then you get a refund from the IRS.
Its not the lottery's job to make those decisions, mate.
seem to work differently when people win millions at US Casinos... withholding tax applies automatically *unless* you have the right paperwork - If you've got an ITIN (or if the casino has the forms available) then they don't apply the otherwise mandatory withholding tax
I don't see why a lottery win would be any different to a big casino or poker tournament win - I guess if you did stand to win a sum that large it shouldn't be hard to go see a good tax lawyer first either
You would come a little short, but in a couple weeks it should literally be buyable unless they raise the entry price.
You would have to pay 600million to guarantee a win, and the cash value is far less.
You could profit through anuity, but you're better off investing at that point.
cahs value is 806 million no?
depending where you're located you'll have differing amounts of tax to pay but you're also going to have winning tickets for pretty much every other combination of wining numbers too
you'd probably need them to have an API allowing automated ticket purchases though if you wanted to buy that many
Withholding is never truly automatic under U.S. tax law. The issue is that the payor may incur a penalty if they fail to withhold in a situation where they should have withheld. Thus, various establishment impose whatever rules they wish in order to feel comfortable that they've complied with the law, both in terms of withholding and reporting.
If the lottery decides to play it ultra-safe and simply withhold the statutory maximum for all non-US citizens, that's their right. They're protecting themselves from the possibility of massive penalties from the IRS. And you, the winner, aren't truly harmed because your actual tax liability (if any) will be decided when you file your US tax return (yes you may lose access to the withheld funds for some time, but that's not a recognized harm under US tax law).
you have a 1 in 135mil chance of dying from choking on food today
you have a 1 in 292mil chance of winning the lotto
do you think you're gonna choke to death today, or any other day for that matter? so why would you expect to win the lottery? youre TWICE as likely to choke
So the human mind wasnt designed to process numbers of this magnitude.
Let me break this down for you. If it takes 10 seconds to buy a ticket and you did nothing but buy tickets for 12 hours a day 365 days a year for 100 tears straight , you would still only have roughly 1 in 2 odds
All these people having a cry on what other people spend money on. The lottery is worth it imo, not because you can get rich but because it creates a little moment where your life is better, not only is this comforting but also gives me something to strive for. I buy once a year and thats enough for me.
I'm buying two tickets because it's a billion dollars
What's the worst that will happen, I'll lose four bucks?
I've never participated before, but lottos are FINE so long as you're completely aware of the fact that they're very unfair and aren't an investment.
What happen if a boglehead wins it and puts half a billion in a four fund portfolio?
>What happen if a boglehead wins it and puts half a billion in a four fund portfolio?
I'll let you know when I win. Played on Friday, and will play again on Wednesday.
Imagine the headline: "Multi-millionaire Becomes Bigger Multi-millionaire." How mad would people be?
>Only poor people buy lottery tickets
regularly. But this is a special occasion.
Not everything you do with your money should be about making more of it. Have some fun from time to time.
As noted in the businessinsider.com article though, as pots increase on rollover lotteries the number of people playing them also increases greatly, vastly increasing the chance that a winner will split the pot and reducing the overall EV again. It is, in theory, possible for a lottery to rollover so much that its EV becomes positives despite this, but even if the EV does turn positive it's rarely going to be worth the time it takes you to buy the tickets and read the powerball numbers.
Q. What taxes are non-US citizens subject to after lottery wins?
A. Should a non-US citizen win a lottery prize, they are subject to federal withholding taxes for non-US citizens, which is 30% of their winnings. While this amount may vary depending on which state the winning ticket is claimed in, the amount that non-US citizens are taxed is very similar to that which is applied to US citizens.
>for example UK poker players in the world series avoid US taxes with a W-2G form due to UK-US tax treaties
From my understanding, a tax treaty only comes into play to avoid double-taxation... so if a UK poker player won money in USA and had to pay tax on that income in the UK, yes a tax treaty may exempt them from USA tax... but if they don't pay tax on the winnings in UK then I believe they'd have to pay tax in USA
I'm retarded - take a look for yourself:
>$806 Million Cash Value
you realise the 1.3 billion is if you chose to get i invested and paid out over 30 years? Presumably not, you spastic...
nope it doesn't work like that - UK players have cashed for seven figure and eight amounts in WSOP events and not had to pay withholding tax
and since the UK doesn't tax gambling winnings they didn't have to pay tax here either
The lump sum is NOT $806 million, kid.
You have to factor in taxes.
Lump-sum cash: $806,000,000
25% Federal Tax - $201,500,000
Then your state takes a tax. My state does not so if I won or my mom won or dad won, they'd get 604.5 million dollars.
fuck me you're stupid... read the original post you quoted
>depending where you're located you'll have differing amounts of tax to pay
the cash value is 806 million, you then pay tax on this... this was stated already before you started trying to dispute it - now you're pointing out the same thing....
They take 25% right off the bat. Then your state takes its cut. So that 806 million cash value means nothing. You don't see it.
Sounds good if you're young but you have to understand that 605.5 million is a lot of fucking money. I'd take it and develop real estate with it or something. And buy some profitable franchises
>They take 25% right off the bat. Then your state takes its cut. So that 806 million cash value means nothing. You don't see it.
yes, I know.... WTF are you even trying to argue you moron... the value of the jackpot is 806 million, tax is paid on this which varies depending on where you live - this was stated in the first post you took issue with... learn to fucking read
There's a much better chance that a crackhead wins your $2 than you win. There's a better chance a millionaire wins, than anyone that you know. That an illegal immigrant wins. That a pedophile wins.
I think of all the people I hate in society, and realize that gambling is most likely just giving them money. So I don't gamble.
If you want something, work your ass off for it and take calculated risks.
I also noticed that in some states, the average person spends $500/year on the lottery. If that's not a poor people tax, I don't know what is. I'm already getting taken for $13,000/year in actual taxes.. that's enough fun for me.
>I don't know why a one time expenditure of $2-$4 gets you faggots in such a rage.
It's just people who feel as though if they spout numbers and statistics, they can feel smarter than the millions of people buying the lottery.
To those people, what are the chances that every second you waste browsing 4chan will net you a chance to win a billions dollars? Because I assure you, it's much lower than the chance of winning the lottery.