Trying to into modeling

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Trying to into modeling

Anyone use monte carlo?

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>>1032948

Male modeling or RC modeling?

I used to have a Monte Carlo in 1973.

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>>1032948

From the slight exposure I have to modeling, yes, Monte Carlo method is invaluable. How are you applying it?

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>>1032948

>monte carlo

useless shit

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>>1033012

I dont know yet. A guy a work told me about it and ive been watching youtube videos on it.

Its hard to grasp that random numbers can predict future prices accurately

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>>1033000

Financial modeling brah /biz/

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>>1033023

>Its hard to grasp that random numbers can predict future prices accurately

But they can't anon, that's the whole deal with stochastic processes. You can sort of calculate the likely bounds based on a lot of possibly wrong assumptions, but the price movement of a single stock is impossible to predict. Unfortunately you can't put your money into the stock in all possible universes, so...

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>>1033023

What the fuck would Monte Carlo simulation do for you?

I'm in geo-statistics and we use Monte Carlo techniques to evaluate uncertainty on rasters and shit.

I don't really see any applications in the field of economics.

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Isn't it basically taking random subsets of a sample and then calculating the variance and mean of a parameter in a regression? It seems pretty straight forward.

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>>1033045

That's bootstrapping.

Monte Carlo usually starts with a first principles model and rolls the dice thousands of times.

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>>1033037

I work at a hedge fund that buys up life insurance policies and we use monte carlo models to accurately predict when people are going to die. Our entire fund is based on predicting death.

Our model guy showed me it today

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>>1033060

Can you tell me how you use the Monte Carlo technique for this particular example?

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>>1033056

I mean, yeah. You have a regression function based on given data and then you just use Monte Carlo to create thousands of random subsets of your sample and then you analyze the results, right?

Maybe km completely off, does anyone have any resources which will enable me to learn more?

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>>1033079

Im just an intern so im retarded

But ...we take what our actuaries say about how many months of life someone has left and then the model runs forecasts to what should happen in the future........?

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>>1033088

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=3gcLRU24-w0

Im watching this and it seems to be pretty gud

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>>1033000

this isnt /fa or /toy this is /biz so obviously op wants to start a escort business under a false "male modelling" term and suck dick in monte carlo

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Monte Carlo is hindsight crap, that can predict shit.

>>1033478

would have more success

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>>1033037

>I don't really see any applications in the field of economics.

One uses historical prices to predict the possibility of the future price. You run 1000 of them, each randomized but with a deviation given by historical info, where it hits the most you can say that according to hindsight, namely how it behaved, it is possible it will behave most probably like this.

But like I said, there are no future parameters, only historical values, and those are in my honest opinion irrelevant in predicting most of the stocks.

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>>1032948

From Pedopedia:

>/sci/:

>Monte Carlo method, a class of computational algorithms

>Monte Carlo integration, a method of numerical integration

>Monte Carlo option model, an option valuation model using Monte Carlo methods

>Monte Carlo algorithm, a randomized algorithm

Gee, /biz/ is cool! Anyone who got degrees in both /biz/ and /sci/?

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>>1033060

>accurately predict when people are going to die.

Um, not quite and over simplified- it's used to predict the ODDs that a person would die at a certain age.

Huge difference between your statement and mine.

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>>1033760

>tfw Pedopedia also taught me about Las Vegas and Atlantic City methods

Fuuaarrk! I gotta go fast to /sci/ and /biz/.

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