If you don't know who this guy is, he basically got thrown in jail for being too smart. Through the use of scientific method he's proven that Adam Smith's invisible hand is real and is in fact a lorenz-attractor. Market cycles are absolutely real, because human behaviour is cyclical just like everything else in the universe. It's a universal law.
He was too good at predicting what was going to happen in the markets, so the Federal government assumed he was involved in some kind of ponzi scheme or mass market manipulation with Japanese investors.
The reality is he's just a fucking genius.
If you want to learn how to TIME THE MARKET, study Armstrong's work.
SO. FUCKING. BASED.
Pic related: I'm long UVXY over the next few weeks.
Learn this guy's shit, he makes Keynesian economists look like Neanderthals and Austrian economists look like school children.
References for what? The truth about his imprisonment?
His side of the story:
For the mainstream/government's side of the story just look at Wikipedia
If you want to understand his models/discoveries then explore his website. Maybe start with this: http://www.economicconfidencemodels.com/
saw a doc recently and i had a hard time to find some constructive criticism of the dude by pros... it almost sound like mysticism: he say there are ups and downs in economy that are cyclical: the cycle restart at what was it 8.6 years and there are hi and lo peaks in the interval each like 2.3 years. that zany theory based on QT 3.1416 i then is used to be mapped on the entire history of business f u can believe it ... and apparently he can predict some stuff with this. is it a big case of confirmation bias idk. he sure did a lot of cash and was sought after by banks and such... but what do i know maybe part of his success was due to freaking luck
His ECM (economic confidence model) tracks global capital flows. It marks shifts in economic trends on a global level, not necessarily tops or bottoms in specific markets.
I'd suggest reading his blog as much as possible and try to understand what it is he has actually discovered, and what it is his models are actually tracking.
The forecast arrays are pretty remarkable, this is a partial explanation of how they work: https://princetoneconomicsintl.com/models/how-to-use-the-forecast-arrays/
As far as a basic investment strategy, there are an endless number of ways to take advantage of this kind of information. Armstrong's work will keep you out of the big losses (like the 2008 financial crisis, or the market slouch over the past 4-5 months).
that's all fine and dandy, but all I see are pictures of past events, I want numbers to put into my trading platform, that indicate to me with some sort of whizbang, a decision threshold has been reached. With that I can confirm for myself using past data whether or not this shit is useful to me.
I could care less about the man, justice, morals, gifts, all I want to know is how I can make money to live out MY dreams.
If I may add onto the cyclical nature of things, there is a great essay if you just google the fate of empires by John Glubb that basically tells you everything you need to know about history and politics. Give it a read OP
You have no idea. MA is known market genius (prolly top5 in the world of those who are still alive) who many of the beste hedge managers in the world look up to. His annual salary was over 700 million usd 20 years back when he was the highest paid hedge fund manager in the world. He literally printed money when he was still back in trading business. His forecasts seem to be 99% of accurate, you can easily check back his track record i have never seen anything like that.
Ok you want to make money? So watch his blog, wait for him to post the forecast arrays. Here's the most recent one: http://www.armstrongeconomics.com/archives/41398
Understand what the reversal numbers mean, and use them to stay one step ahead of the market.
But honestly you will never really be able to take full advantage of Armstrong's work without having a proper understanding of it. It's complicated shit, but it's also fucking mind blowing and inherently interesting.
His ask-socrates.com trader level & investor level services are coming out soon, he's been posting the forecast arrays and reversal numbers on his blog for free for years now but ask-socrates will give much more detailed information on-demand. His ask-socrates.com service is basically the ultimate culmination of his life's work, it will give you a better picture of the markets than you could ever imagine.
Well the whole being thrown in prison in contempt of federal court for 7 years (an all-time record, and an unconstitutional one at that) kind of set his career back a bit.
Not to mention his discoveries fly in the face of everything government economists and most big hedge fund managers believe in, as well as flies in the face of some of what Austrian economists and gold bugs believe in. His work proves Austrian economists are kind of on the right track, but still get a lot of things wrong when it comes to their understanding of what money actually is (hint: it's not gold and it doesn't have to be inherently valuable).
This is one of those things where you have to explore his models and methodologies yourself, and then think for yourself: https://s3.amazonaws.com/armstrongeconomics-wp/2012/05/manual-models.pdf
Austrian economics is too rational, man is not. Armstrong is cognizant of that fact, economics is more psychology than people want to admit. Math only plays into it when the move has exhausted itself and the inevitable happens.
> arrested for actual fraud
Arrested and never convicted. He was only ever convicted of conspiracy to commit fraud, and that was after being held unconstitutionally for contempt of federal court (which was bullshit) and agreeing to a plea bargaining deal (he read a script to the judge).
They didn't prove shit, they just wanted his computer models but he wouldn't give it to them. It was his life's work.
There's a reason people argue plea bargaining is unconstitutional. If you want to read the full story from his perspective, go here: https://web.archive.org/web/20150429122325/http://www.themartinarmstrongcase.com/?
Basically we're looking at a hell of a lot of volatility next week (week of the 11th), most likely with a continuation of the bearish trend right now although not necessarily. Probably a bit of back and forth/treading water on the week of the 18th, with the bearish trend hitting a major or minor bottom on the week of the 25th.
The empirical & composite models are telling us that the larger weekly trend peaks on the week of the 25th.
If you really want to understand, you gotta study his models & methodologies textbook.
Also from that post
>We have initial support forming at the 16886 level and a weekly closing below that will confirm a continued decline. Our daily models warn of important support starting at 16930.
Also, these are his DJI bearish reversal numbers from that post. The bearish trend should continue tomorrow since we closed below 16930 today, and if we close below 16886 on friday then it should continue into early next week.
lol, you guys are retarded. I posted his fucking forecast array for the next 10 weeks.
Armstrong hasn't sold any of this information, all of it has always been free. I'm here to discuss the work of a genius, not peddle wares.
Besides, none of you morons have any money anyway. This would be the last place I'd come to sell bullshit.