How do you tell if an economic downturn is occurring?

>>1027754
Transport industry
Also bump for interest

Just look at the increase of money that has to compensate the expenses of the government.
For example, real one though,
The US government is in deep debt shit and is increasing tax money, insurance, tuition money etc, money has to come from somewhere to make up for the economic downturn the nation is experiencing. The United States will fall if it does not reform it's economy. They're depending on their currency value mostly now. "Hurr durr it's okay the country is going to shit, everyone is buying our currency" - stupid government. What they don't realize is investors sooner or later will realize that the country is going to shit like brazil or Venezuela or whatever and pull out.

If you plot the posting data and that country happens to be shitpoating on /int/ more than usual desu.

GDP is what people WANT to hear or see. If you want the truth you just look at these two things
Government expenses and revenue.
The funny thing is people think America is doing well even though every fucking year they take a new loan to pay the debt and then get a new loan basically with more debt. Also because they keep printing more money inflation will occur.
Things are not going well but just like we tell feminists they don't do anything wrong by increasing our taxes "we don't need men to provide for us, please government provide for us study financing in women studies or liberal arts"
we as people get told that the economy is doing well.
IT'S STUPID, really the majority of people 90% are too lazy to just look it up. Government expenses and revenue. Minus= bad, positive=good. Elementary school status.
The quality of educated people is also decreasing as I said fucking feminists are destroying the country. Feminism slowly destroyed the US, just look at the numbers and statistics, they don't lie, if you don't trust me.
I am predicting if all this continues, the US will not be a world power in the future.

If everyone could accurately tell when economic booms & busts would occur we would all be rich.

Unfortunately this is impossible. You have leading indicators of busts (e.g. market crashes,etc..) & lagging indicators (e.g. employment rate,etc..). At the end of the day you can't 100% predict an economic outlook due to uncertainty as indicators are not completely reliable.

Although you can't be certain of the future economic state you can gauge a fair indication by looking at these indicators. Ultimately if you choose to participate within investment opportunities you must make some sort of educated bet whilst using this data.

>>1027799
And why does the US debt matter you cuck?

Our GDP grows faster than our debt each year and who do you think is going to try come collect the debt?

>>1027802
Shut the fuck up sheep, don't agree with ne? Like I said, just do your own research. Expenses and income. Basic math.

>>1027803
>Can't explain anything beyond that

Why does the debt matter if our GDP growth is exceeding it?

How does debt even impact our lives when no one is capable of collecting it and every country has debt?

>>1027802
Tax money is going to shit education that:
1 makes no improvement in technology
2 makes no improvement in the economy
3 makes no money
4 just increases tax spendings
So what end up happening is, a fuck load of stupid people major in stupid shit tax money is used and people take loans, which by the way is fucking funny that you already don't believe me the economy is shit because the shittier it gets, the more expensive things get (inflation). So after that people either don't get a job, get a kid or get a shit job that does not contribute to society at all so basically you can cut advancement out of the possible results with this situation.
They dont get a job? Tax money goes to them while also using public utilities financed by taxes. Top kek.
The money they spend is basically a sort of "subsidy" to companies or stores because if you were to take those useless cunts out of the equation, it's like the government gave money to the company or store. BASICALLY USELESS.
Now, if a worthless asshole has a kid and no job with shit degree. They get all kinds of support from our tax money. Long story short, MORE EXPENSES. We're not talking about a few single mother here. Statistics show tens of millions, mostly female. That's a fuckload amount. I don't blame widows however. But I do blame shitheads. Also were paying a fuckload of money on teachers that teach fucking bullshit like african arts or anything in women studies.
Use your brain, if our expenses are so great, where will money come from when talking about taxes? The other 30% that does have their shit together and doesn't need any financial support? How awesome. Just do some research and you'll get there. Do not believe the media and government. ROME FELL AND SO WILL THE US. Same reasons basically, expense exceeds revenue. Being ignorant of clear facts, letting emotion get in the way. "Ohh Rome is the greatest"History repeats itself.

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>>1027805
>GDP growth is exceeding it
[citation fucking needed]

>>1027805
People are fucking stupid.
It's like a household. You earn money but you spend it on stupid bullshit which makes you earn less and less. There is literally no return of investment on those stupid expenses. Also inflation is a clear phenomenon that anyone can see happening right now. Deep shit, I am telling you.

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>>1027809

>>1027812
My nigga, we're in times of peace and still we are in so much debt. People don't even wonder why? It's like living with a naive wife that spends money on the most stupid shit and even goes into debt with buying that stupid shit on her credit card.

>>1027808
>>1027811
But gender studies and English degrees are very valuable and important to society...

>>1027813
Indeed. I'm not even a clapper and it fucking annoys me that you cunts just let your government fuck shit up so bad. You're literally going to be brazil tier by 2050 if you don't watch it. Fucking Reagan.

>>1027799
>>1027794
>>1027808

I see, makes sense, just to further my understanding. Can anyone look at their governments expenditures and revenue from any country? Like I said im from NewZealand so I should be able to find this on my governments websites?

Also, you know how you said Governments need to take loans to pay off debts, this implies taking a loan from the central or "reserve" bank and paying other countries like China right? How did they get that debt in the first place and how is EVERY country in debt, this makes no sense

>>1027805
The government is collecting their debt from taxation money. Inflation bruh, pumping more money in the economy and raising prices. GREAT.

>>1027817
Because people are fucking stupid and they let their emotions come first instead of logical sense, that's why expenses are so fucking high. They can't see that debt is going to destroy us inevitability unless something very fucking prosperous happens. PEOPLE THAT DO SEE THESE CRASHES AND RECESSIONS HAPPEN WAY AHEAD OF TIME DO NOT WORK FOR THE GOVERNMENT. ALL THESE PREVIOUS BUBBLES HAVE BEEN PREDICTED BEFORE BUT THE GOVERNMENT DOES NOT LISTEN AND FUCKS SHIT UP.
You show them clear charts and statistics but they don't care because all you are to them is an ant, an annoying critisizing one. Who wants to listen to a pessimistic asshole?

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>>1027821
Dude women are the reason for all the debt. Government's behaving rationally and just going where the votes take them.

>>1027754
I am in New Zealand as well, you missed out on the amazing trade that was short AUD and Short NZD, Long JPY. But the currently good trades that I can see from a New Zealand Perspective, is to go short the Chinese Stock market with a derivative. I used CHAD, which is a 3x bear etf.

Another trade will be emerging soon on the Swedish Krona due to the positioning of the Riksbank.

I honestly make most of my money by observing the actions of Central Banks and studying the economic theory I learned at University here in Wellington.

Oh and another trade which is emerging is a long on gold, because the Fed is considering moving back to gold, as well as the societal elite in general.

>>1027816
The funny thing is that I don't even live in the US, I have never been a US citizen as well. IT'S JUST MY FUCKING HOBBY TO BE AN ECONOMIST. No degree in economy as well. It's all common sense, which the majority of people don't have.
Really, all it takes to see and predict these things is logical sense, no emotion involved.

>>1027826
>The funny thing is that I don't even live in the US, I have never been a US citizen as well.
Welp that explains things a bit. Perhaps we being non-claps avoid much of the propaganda claps are subjected to and thus can more clearly see their situation.

>>1027824
Should women be banned from voting again?

>>1027824
The government is not, they're the ones encouraging and helping these liabilities.
But yes I agree, feminism destroyed the world, they destroyed the culture and they destroyed the one income family culture. They destroyed the economy as well with useless bullshit which has been invested in in sums of trillions like make up, for what? Looking a bit nicer. HOLY SHIT HOW AWESOME, TOTALLY GOOD AND WE'RE TOTALLY GOING TO ADVANCE AS CIVILIZATION, THE MONEY TOTALLY COULD NOT HAVE BEEN USED FOR PROJECTS IN ENGINEERING OR ENVIRONMENT.
Also, the divorce rates have never been as high as today. Women are fucking crazy and unlike.men, most of them do not have logic, YET WE ARE TAKING MEN AWAY FROM THE EQUATION OF SOCIETY, MEN ARE BY NATURE SUPPOSED TO BE THE LEADING ONE, WOMEN THE NURTURING ONE. There is exceptions ofcourse. But overall. A family without dad is just fucked, they're sending a kid in the economy that is fucked up, never had a father figure because the government took the providing role. Civilization is not progressing, it's relatively decreasing its increase of quality in life. Men are the ones that build the economy so well. Women are tearing it down with their "feelings".

>>1027829
No, but the feminism bullshit has to stop. It's only causing trouble. Men actually treat women as an equal but they still bitch and whine and FEEL oppressed.

>>1027827
There is actually quite a handfull of people that know their shit but can't get their word out because people are stupid. "CONSPIRACY THEORIST FUCK OFF" - SOCIETY
"Everything is going okay with economy, yes I pay more insurance and have more debt than ever, also I can buy less with my money, but it's no problem, the US is great!" - ignorant cunt who majored in women studies

>>1027831
Women overwhelmingly vote for socialist policies though. Hillary will destroy the country.

>>1027815
Speaking English as your native language and yet learning it in academics? Why not in your free time and just studying something usefull that will help the economy. Look at me, never studied economics, just in my free time but yet I can predict future recessions and bubbles we're in. Women studies? Don't get me fucking stsrted on that bullshit. There is a reason there is no men studies, men are not so fucking stupid with their spendings.

>>1027817
>>1027821
>>1027824
Lets be clear here, there are a large number of factors at play here and I'd like to explore some of them which are simply being ignored.

1. Technological Unemployment with the rapid rate of employment decline. Unlike the industrial revolution in which primitively educated workers could be placed onto production lines to operate equipment, the relative number of new forms of employment being produced will continue to rapidly decrease so long as we have an increasing tendency towards automated production. This problem will probably last another 50 years, and past that can not be said for.
2. Diminishing returns on debt, partially due to debt saturation. There are numerous effects from incredibly low, even negative interest rates, which are negative for the medium to long term economic outlook.

Firstly with lower interest rates, many previously unviable businesses are essentially birthed and subsidized into unproductive ventures.

Secondly, it essentially acts to inflate asset prices because that new debt has to go somewhere. It follows MV = PQ, ensures that the vast quantities of money are not increasing the rate of economic velocity but rather inflating asset prices. The current Fed led market, assisted by almost all other central banks in the world, are printing money to push inflation up whilst almost all the growth in the money supply is going into assets.

These assets are clearly far beyond their realistic value, but central banks are not operating by taylor rule and have decided it is a better idea to induce a false wealth effect.

3. Everyone knows this wealth effect is entirely false. But no one wants to feel the consequences. Western economies are essentially in hysterisis, which is to say they are locked at a point where they can only make real economic gains by increasing energy use/production, and increasing productivity. Otherwise they fluctuate between zero growth and very limited growth.

>>1027833
Socialism is a high contributor to destroying a nation, but more so the people in the nation is what destroys the nation. They're clearly too stupid. And if socialism wins by votes, that obviously means the majority of people are too stupid. Majority means the other part of society has to compensate for their intellectual stupidity. But there is too many stupid people in too high levels of stupid and not enough smart people.

>>1027829
>Should women be banned from voting again?
Is this even a question?

>>1027837
Women should be housewives, men should work, kids that get raised are not fucked up in the head, deceases and other bullshit like bipolar disorder barely exists. Women are the cause for divorce so men being in power with rationality decrease divorce rates. With women doing a good job at home sending good kids in society, men take places from women that are gone which creates a job surplus because men that don't have a job make up for waaaayy less than women working now. Feminism being out of the way men get arrested less for bullshit things. Less criminal activity = less expenses on that bullshit. People are just too fucking lazy to read up calculus so they take bullshit studies thinking they'll make a fortune with that, no one reality checks them. So those studies should be gone. People either study something usefull or they are stay at home. Less debt, more productivity. Technology is a good thing and if we keep advancing we won't run out of jobs because new things will be discovered, things start somewhere in time, just like space travel, new jobs for something previously unknown. Future holds unknown things including jobs.
It boggles my mind.

>>1027825
How does one short using ASB bank? I mean, I know how to buy stocks and stuff, but when it comes to shorting, how does it work? How long is the period you want to short before you have to pay the shares back whether you gained or lost

>>1027837
I will briefly explain what western governments can do to improve their economies.

The west sits in a real predicament at the moment. Our democratic institutions exist on the basis of economic prosperity, which is not self-manifesting anymore, and upon the need for the state to ensure the citizens of an economic safety net.

What needs to be examined are methods for actually growing the value produced in the economy. That is either through capital, labour or productivity. Increased productivity can be thought of as the increased ability to produce value through technological, organizational, methodological or scale improvements. These often require research, need and the willingness to adapt.

Western practises of government defended business practise and employee practise too much, their workers are paid too highly.

The weakness in your argument is that you assume that pay will be higher. How can even more highly paid western workers compete with chinks working for 2 cents a week. They fucking can't.

What you need to do is form a separate state, in which the laws are not structured in favour of women. A small city-state, founded by western men in a relatively habitable third world country. Armed to the teeth and self-defensive. But urban life in itself is degenerate.

You MUST automate this stuff. As much as I'd agree with you, try convincing the vast masses of people to live poorer and be happy about it. You won't succeed in doing so, but you could form a traditionalist society in a smaller framework in which that worked. It would probably need to be agrarian too. You also need to educate the entire community properly, which would be done through the church. But it is difficult to return to those things when people believe themselves to be beyond it.

>>1027843
>The weakness in your argument is that you assume that pay will be higher. How can even more highly paid western workers compete with chinks working for 2 cents a week. They fucking can't.
>What you need to do is form a separate state, in which the laws are not structured in favour of women. A small city-state, founded by western men in a relatively habitable third world country. Armed to the teeth and self-defensive. But urban life in itself is degenerate.
>You MUST automate this stuff. As much as I'd agree with you, try convincing the vast masses of people to live poorer and be happy about it. You won't succeed in doing so, but you could form a traditionalist society in a smaller framework in which that worked. It would probably need to be agrarian too. You also need to educate the entire community properly, which would be done through the church. But it is difficult to return to those things when people believe themselves to be beyond it.
This argument was supposed to be directed at you. Pardon me.

>>1027852

>Church

Stopped reading and your entire post is instantly invalid.

>>1027802
If you stop paying then you get no new loans and then what?

>>1027754

If you see:

>an abnormal rise in the number of "recruitment consultancy" and "sales" jobs
>persistent rise in immigration year on year to fill jobs "no one else wants to do"
>wage growth consistently lacks behind inflation year on year
>increase in the number of "entrepreneurial programs" advertised by the government to get people to "start their own businesses"
>getting a job in fast food or janitorial work requires a college degree and work experience

you can be pretty damn certain the whole economy is struggling even though officially the GDP figures may be in the positive figures (barely).

However in these circumstances, it is almost impossible to predict when exactly the SHTF because people just "accept things as they are" and get on with their miserable lives. Normally a landmark legal case, whistleblowing, political, environmental or bankruptcy initiates the chain reaction in the stock market to necessitate the cumulative forces that leads to negative GDP growth, which of course only then, political economists will finally decide to call it an “economic downturn”.

>>1027808
>Rome and US

Finally someone else makes this connection.

>>1027825
What do you think of the krona?

>>1027854
You do not think logically if you believe in religion. Thus your credibility suffers on that.
However I think that there should be specilization and quality on top of that.
Men and women are equal, however, men are more logical beings, for you to say it is bad that women don't get voting rights is just stupid. You want people that are less logical and overall more stupid with finances to vote over the future of a whole country? That's where it went wrong. More wrong than to make women the same as men in the sense of treatment BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT THE SAME. Yes most laws should account equally like violence and theft. But women are why consumerism exists in higher forms of debt and more stupidious products. Women are care takers by nature, men are the one that gather the resources. Yes we must advance, but we must not forget what made us prosper, men taking charge who think logically. Men made the world better and more advanced, more civilized. Women fuck it up through fashion and other bullshit like make up.
Do not be delusional, just do some research on expenses and household bullshit, Im getting fucking tired of people that let their emotions get in the way of statistics and charts, just look at the fucking statistics, there has been numerous posts that included statistics with great details of information. Don't be an ignorant cunt now by ignoring them.

>>1027859
Unfortunately, they just print more money out which creates inflation because your money gets worth less! Isn't that great?

Anyone that denies that the US is going to.shit should be working there in the government, faculty of national statistics any field, labour, finances anything. NOBODY WILL ARGUE WITH YOU OVER THE FINANCIAL DEBTS AND BULLSHIT. Do some fucking research on your own and you will see more clear, stop getting spoonfed.

>>1027880
You must be living on welfare.

You see, Im not claiming to get rid of it entirely, what I am trying to say is, UNNECESSARY EXPENSES SHOULD BE CUT. People must not be stupid or encouraged to take stupid shit degrees that have no relation to the word prosperity.

>>1027808

you do realise getting rid of all the "useless eaters" at the bottom of the pyramid will simply be filled by another group of useless eaters eventually?

The Übermensch meritocratic society you envision is simply doomed to fail and solves nothing.

Instead of all the “useless liberal art degree holders”, soon people who can’t compute pi to the 100th decimal place will be seen as the new “useless eaters”. It just fuels an endless cycle of unnecessary and illogical deriding and purging of the people who you deem as “useless eaters” who contribute “nothing” to society/economy.

Rather than trying to understanding why people are poor, can't get jobs etc, you make the childish mistake of trying to get rid of the problem entirely because of your "just world" fallacy.

Though I guess this type of logic is to be expected from /pol/ university graduates.

>>1027794
>>1027799
>>1027803
>>1027811
>>1027813
>>1027818
>>1027821
>>1027826
>>1027830
>>1027831
>>1027832
>>1027835
>>1027838
>>1027843

yep. definitely a /pol/ troll

>>1027886
Fucking top kek, just do your own research. You are letting your emotions and feelings get in the way. Numbers don't lie.

>>1027848
>>1027865
Krona is undervalued because of negative interest rates and also because of the enormous amount of money pouring into swedish housing. The government is attempting to finance itself through its central bank, and Sweden is probably going to set a peg to the Euro, which will be stupid as fuck. But it will make a large amount of money.

I don't use ASB, I used FXCM.

Buy some sheep - you'll have more chance of making money with such a tard question

>>1027857
Religious education > Secular education.

What you faggots, particularly Americans don't realize is that a church gives a society a common philosophy and set of ideals. The same ideals which are required to establish law, to ensure common values and standards, to establish rituals for human habits, to strengthen community and provide mass education. One church for the state, and no other way. It doesn't mean you believe the stories, which are literally just that, stories. They are designed to teach children lessons and reinforce ideas. Religion is overall good.

>>1027868
You have no economic training. You have ranted at me about shit that I have no clue how you related it to my post. You've posted nothing but a rant, providing nothing to this thread other than /pol/.

You know how /pol/iticians evolve on /pol/? They start liberal or communist, they become conservative, then libertarian, then fascist, then traditionalist and finally they leave. Once you've become a traditionalist, you move beyond the debates of /pol/ into meditation upon books, laws and ideas.

Do yourself a favour kid, Do four years in the military, then go to college for a political subject of use, like economics and maths, then head to law school at a high end law school. Never watch tv, read the bible 30 minutes a day, read books 3 hours a day, exercise often and be in yourself the mastery which is needed to master women. Then come back, as you gain wisdom from your contemplation and enlighten /pol/.

I've been where you were, and transitioned it. And now I literally outjew the jews for a living.

>>1027886
Also, I explained numerous times, the reason why people are poor is because of the increase in government revenue from taxes, not because they spend more. They major in stupid things where they don't get any returns from their investment in a stupid degree. They can't get jobs because their degree is shit and qualifies for nothing basically.

>>1027885

>UNNECESSARY EXPENSES SHOULD BE CUT

So you assume everything can be overseen and predicted, and that only if "unnecessary expenses" were cut, the economy would miraculously be back on track and we'll get back to the good ol' days of the post-WW2 era of the American dream.

You give the government (and humans in general) far too much credit to be able to have such godly abilities to be able to plan their destinies as they see fit.

Though I guess your conspiratorial beliefs blind you from reality, so it would be a pointless exercise in trying to explain anything.

>>1027843

Yeah, /pol/ is that way m8 >>>/pol/

>>1027903
Laws regulate population behaviour better than religion, unlike religion, law will have direct consequences instead of the afterlife argument.

Listen up boy, economics in school teaches you nothing else other than a few theories and some econometrics. But what people forget is that economics is a philosophy, trying to get people understand the phenomenon happening in the world through hard evidence and statistics. You don't have to believe my talking. However ignoring true facts because you dont want to believe them is just ignorant and that means that you contribute to the overall problem of why society is stupid enough to ignore facts and believe their own feelings.
As I said, history will be repeaten this way, rome fell, so will the US.
As for me having no economic background.
I have had 2 years of economics in high school, accounting and all that crap.you learn nothing viable for the real world. What I ahve learned by myself through only believing the truth and not letting feelings fuck up the future I have become more understanding of economic processes, it's all online kids, all phenomena, all the signs of when an economy is fucking up, failing anything. Just believing tour fucking theoretical econometrics is getting you no where further than the government circlejerk of "everything is okay" while it is not.

>>1027907
People are not gods, you're just being extreme and claiming I claimed it. You are just like feminists. Defensive and not listening to rational facts.
People however can prevent further damage through the right education and through the right system. People cause this economic bullshit, what does that mean? That they cna also prevent is. Logic 101. Humans are volatile, unpredictable beings. Thats why you have to take statistics as fact not human opinion like mine or your own. As I am telling you, just do your own research, does not take long, you dont have to be a professor. All it takes you to be able to do is to be logical and take 1 from one source and put it with 1 from another source so on so on, to create 2, a conclusion.
We, that put 1+1 together can't do much as minority.
We can predict bubbles, recessions etc through hard facts. Yet people still ask why and ignore us. Thats because they only listen to what they want to hear.

>>1027802
No it has not since 2001.

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>>1027815

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>>1027835
Men's Studies is literally called History.

>>1027890
>"women let their feelings get in the way, men don't"
>man disagrees
>"You're letting your feelings get in the way!"

I'm not saying no-fault divorce shouldn't be abolished, nor am I saying that women's demand to work allowed the economy to adapt and require that both parents work, but I am saying you're a faggot.

>>1028083
That is because real men don't, men nowadays are more pussies than actual men. These pussies act and behave like women when it comes to making decisions, overlooking facts with their feelings and opinions. And bitching about how things hurt their feelings.