[Boards: 3 / a / aco / adv / an / asp / b / biz / c / cgl / ck / cm / co / d / diy / e / fa / fit / g / gd / gif / h / hc / his / hm / hr / i / ic / int / jp / k / lgbt / lit / m / mlp / mu / n / news / o / out / p / po / pol / qa / qst / r / r9k / s / s4s / sci / soc / sp / t / tg / toy / trash / trv / tv / u / v / vg / vip /vp / vr / w / wg / wsg / wsr / x / y ] [Search | Home]
4Archive logo
Saudi Revolution Profit Potential
If images are not shown try to refresh the page. If you like this website, please disable any AdBlock software!

You are currently reading a thread in /biz/ - Business & Finance

Thread replies: 26
Thread images: 2
File: SaudiOil.jpg (472 KB, 2200x1325) Image search: [iqdb] [SauceNao] [Google]
SaudiOil.jpg
472 KB, 2200x1325
Ok... yesterday the government of Saudi Arabia executed Nimr al-Nimr, a well known Shiite cleric.

This has sparked outrage and violence; and (in my opinion), suggests there may actually be a revolution in Saudi Arabia.

If this happens, expect a certain number of well know oil companies to drop 20-30% (as happened when there was a revolution in Libya back in 2011).

Thoughts?
>>
>>1022792
>Revolution in KSA over some Shi'ite.
lol no.
>>
>>1022798

Maybe "revolution" isn't the right term since it implies something that originates from within.

But SA has been asking for it for years, and I think this time they may have gone too far.
>>
>>1022799
I don't think there will be Amy repercussions. Saudi Arabia is already fighting two proxy wars against Iran in Yemen and Syria. How much worse can relations get? If anything this act could be seen as an olive branch to the KSA's internal Wahabbist religious leaders who consider Shia Muslims to be apostates.
>>
>>1022811
That Iran war might not be a proxy for long, Iranian protesters attacked the Saudi embassy.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/03/world/middleeast/saudi-arabia-executes-47-sheikh-nimr-shiite-cleric.html?_r=0
>>
OP here.

But back to the original point... any revolution or significant protest is going to present definite profit potential if you know the right place to put your money.
>>
>>1022792

Put it in big oil from other countries.

A threatened supply in Saudi Arabia will shoot oil to the sky. At least temporarily
>>
>>1022823

Yes. It will also crash companies who get a large supply from SA.

An example of this would be Suncor, which was doing fine until the Libyan revolution, at which point they went to shit when their supply was threatened.
>>
I'm pretty pissed. I was going to buy oil stocks, but it seemed like a hassle to set up robin hood.
>>
>>1022815
>>1022817
>>1022811

Iran will not invade or attack Saudi Arabia over this. The true danger to the KSA is the houthis are advancing into KSA and everyone knows gulf monarchy militaries are incompetent, so they might lose mecca and other territory. Also, KSA is hemorrhaging money and is going to start to cut spending, one proposal is to decrease the subsidy for domestic gasoline. Also, the royal family has developed a lot of internal conflict. The yemen intervention was not supported by everyone.

No revolution in sight, but a shitload of instability.
>>
>>1022792
Probably the other way around actually. Saudi Arabia is the primary reason oil is so cheap at the moment -if they experience disruption one might expect the oil price to actually go up, and thus oil companies to raise in market value.
>>
>>1022895
Buying so much CVX and CNX over the next few months.
>>
>>1022792
Should i short saudi riyals (SR) or what?
>>
>>1022982

I think anyone who has been paying attention to the oil market knows that the reason oil/gas is so cheap right now is because Saudi Arabia is flooding the market in an attempt to bankrupt the Dakota shale business before they became too much of a threat.

According to this article, it's already too late, and the Saudi's are burning through so much cash there's a good chance that they will go broke before they can break the American companies:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html

As far as your question and the whole theme of this post, here's what I think...

1. Saudi Arabia has been a trouble maker (and playing both sides) for decades. Their human rights violations are so blatant and now so public, that the monarchy can't last in the long run.

2. When the kingdom falls is anyone's guess, but the execution of this cleric has lit a fire that is very similar to what happened with the death of Mohamed Bouazizi, which set off the arab spring.

3. Of the publicly held oil companies, there are some who get NO oil from Saudi Arabia, and others who get LOTS of oil from them.

4. If there is chaos in SA, oil prices will shoot up, since it's SA which is keeping them artificially low.

5. However... at the same time oil prices go up, there will be a mini-crash of those companies who rely on Saudi oil since their supply will be in question (note Suncor in 2011 when Libya went nuts and they lost their supply).

6. So, if SA explodes, companies like Shell and Exxon/Mobil who rely heavily on Saudi oil will fall, while companies like Murphy Oil and Sunoco who use almost no Opec oil will rise with the increase in oil prices.

Or, at least, that's my theory at 1AM tonight.
>>
>>1022991
>http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/oilprices/11768136/Saudi-Arabia-may-go-broke-before-the-US-oil-industry-buckles.html
I wouldn't hold my breath: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/saudi-arabia/government-debt-to-gdp

>When the kingdom falls is anyone's guess, but the execution of this cleric has lit a fire that is very similar to what happened with the death of Mohamed Bouazizi, which set off the arab spring.

It has lit that fire under at most the 10-15% of the Saudi population which is Shi'ite. There's no way this is going to topple Riyadh, at best there may be a secessionist movement in the Eastern Province. Granted that's where the oil is, but it doesn't have a great chance of succeeding given the population balance.
>>
>>1022895
Saudi Arabia is only cheap because it's trying to preserve its market share.

>>1022792
Not enough Shi'as in the KSA for a revolution. But boy, the KSA needs a revolution. Unfortunately, it's at the heart of the Wahhabisphere and there's really no viable alternative to the system aside from perhaps removing the Sauds from power and setting up a proper Republic - that's still Wahhabi.
>>
>>1022792

>oil companies drop

R u retarded. Oil prices will rise dummy.
>>
Saudi Arabia is already maximizing oil production, what caused the massive drop. Why would a revolution affect oil prices anymore?
>>
>>1023047
The companies that get their majority of oil from KSA will likely drop if an uprising/revolution/insurgency cuts off the supply of Saudi oil.
>>
>>1023042
Yes exactly. And if they have any kind of internal problems, their historical answer has been to throw money at it - they can't do that with cheap oil. They will have no choice but to cut supply to raise prices or risk falling and prices will rise anyway.
>>
>>1022792
>
Idgaf about ur shitty reasons, give me a Saudi oil company to short, when to buy, and when to sell, pls and thankyou
>>
>>1023047
R u?
Doesn't matter if oil prices go up if the companies' plants are destroyed
>>
>>1023075

You're forgetting that Iran is sitting on a fuckton of reserves. Once KSA starts rising prices, Iran will want to counter this by dumping and drive KSA into bankruptcy.
>>
>>1022792
Saudi Arabia is ~90% sunni and spends much of its oil wealth on defense, especially of said oil infrastructure, they are prepared for a shiite uprising so it is unlikely. Gaddafi fell due to his regime's inability to adapt to demographic and socioeconomic changes and defectors who were quite aware of the changing situation around them (and their dictator's bizarre behavior), not the myth of a spark that spontaneously starts a revolution.

The statement by the Iraqi ex-prime minister might just be a meme, the arab spring and resulting happenings are this season's hot ticket in the middle east and it might be wishful thinking that it would spread to Saudi Arabia

Though it might cause some troubles it won't overthrow the regime, if anything Saudi Arabia might increase oil production due to the need for more money in the short term to spend on reducing unrest, though it won't change much.

There is a chance the low oil prices are due to a cartel that fell apart due to said happenings. It is possible Saudi Arabia might cave and re-enter a cartel-like arrangement with Iran and the others and oil prices might rise again.

I don't know, this doesn't change my stance of waiting for oil companies to hit rock bottom and buying but it is an important development
>>
>>1022792
You need to be >18 to use this website
>>
>>1022792
Here's how to trade oil:

There's about 1.5 million barrels per day more in the market than there is demand.

If 1. 5 mmbpd gets taken out of the market, buy oil.

If more oil comes to market (Iraq, Iran) sell oil.

There. Now you know as much about trading oil as any profitable hedge fund's oil traders.

You're welcome.
Thread replies: 26
Thread images: 2
Thread DB ID: 365529



[Boards: 3 / a / aco / adv / an / asp / b / biz / c / cgl / ck / cm / co / d / diy / e / fa / fit / g / gd / gif / h / hc / his / hm / hr / i / ic / int / jp / k / lgbt / lit / m / mlp / mu / n / news / o / out / p / po / pol / qa / qst / r / r9k / s / s4s / sci / soc / sp / t / tg / toy / trash / trv / tv / u / v / vg / vip /vp / vr / w / wg / wsg / wsr / x / y] [Search | Home]

[Boards: 3 / a / aco / adv / an / asp / b / biz / c / cgl / ck / cm / co / d / diy / e / fa / fit / g / gd / gif / h / hc / his / hm / hr / i / ic / int / jp / k / lgbt / lit / m / mlp / mu / n / news / o / out / p / po / pol / qa / qst / r / r9k / s / s4s / sci / soc / sp / t / tg / toy / trash / trv / tv / u / v / vg / vip /vp / vr / w / wg / wsg / wsr / x / y] [Search | Home]

All trademarks and copyrights on this page are owned by their respective parties. Images uploaded are the responsibility of the Poster. Comments are owned by the Poster.
This is a 4chan archive - all of the shown content originated from that site. This means that 4Archive shows their content, archived. If you need information for a Poster - contact them.
If a post contains personal/copyrighted/illegal content, then use the post's [Report] link! If a post is not removed within 24h contact me at [email protected] with the post's information.