I mistakenly posted this on /pol/ yesterday. Should've gone straight here. Effortless arbitrage opportunity. After taxes and commission, you'll still be making an amazing return.
Fuck off, 99% of you retards trade stock like its a bet anyways.
You won't be making any money after the primaries. Hell, in 1 week the US media will pick up that he's likely to win the nomination, so you have a few days to scrounge together the money. A Dem is winning the general, so once Bernie wins the nomination its a guaranteed victory.
Serious question, do these betting websites pay back? Are they legally obligated to?
I may put 100 down on Bernie just because he has a good shot of winning and 100 isn't too much to lose.
1. History. Jan 7, 2007, new polls showed Obama's lead over Hillary in the general. 1 week before that, all polls and all analysts were saying Hillary had the victory.
2. We're getting closer to primaries. Many analysts are already confident about Bernie taking NH.
3. New year, new news. Hillary and Trump are 2015's stories.
Most sites should have an option to cash out. Unless you're betting from somewhere where it's illegal, no site can ignore your request to cash out unless they expressly say they can.
Hillary has already been crowned by the DNC. Hell, the DNC is run by a furmer staffer of her's. She has a fuckton of superdelegates behind her. Bernie is fucked.
I put 100€(+100€ signup-bonus) on Trump. If he wins I'll get ~1400€, if not I can live with losing 100€.
She plans to raise rates in the future just as much as she planned to raise rates in early 2014. She won't follow up on it if the economic indicators are poor. Rates only went up this year because job data was good enough to warrant it. Truthfully, the rate was hiked in order to brace for a potential recession and re-instill faith in the US economy.
If a recession occurs, it won't be the Fed's fault.
we are in a rising rate environment and hikes continuing is the default, unless something of some magnitude happens. 2-3 hikes in 2016. seeing how bearish people on this board are on US economy just makes that case stronger. same people that have been calling for lower SPX since 2010 are the same ones calling recession in 2016. 9 out of 10 times negativity doesnt pay.
people are bearish on US economy because the data are bearish, parts of US economy is already in recession. so called US manufacturing renaissance ended as soon as it began.
I wasn't calling for lower s&p in '10 but it seems some big event is going to occur.
The employment market is being squeezed, the markets seem full of funny money and the younger generation are extraordinarily debt laden.
I'm just a noob but this doesn't scream booming economy.
GDP calculation over states consumption as a share of GDP and understates manufacturing.
Calculate using gross output, manufacturing is the largest sector of the economy.
Clinton had a lot of endorsements in the 2008 elections and she got BTFO by Obama. She always lead before the primaries because her voters are old hags who still use the landlines. Clinton lost because of social media. Also Trump will use Bill Clinton sexual assault history, Chelsea is not the daughter of bill, their history of corruption, and so. She's walking into an ambush. There is a reason why people fear Sanders and that's because he has a clean life and wants to end the unregulated nature of the derivatives market.
Shillery literally had half the delegates needed and no one has even voted.
Berntards don't realize that the nomination has been promised to her. This is the sole reason he can make ridiculous claims in his campaign
Nah the logical step is a washed up billionaire who would make the Der Fuhrer proud. Or a socalist taking power in a country with leftistphobia. 2024 is a gay Asian cripple veteran.
US presidental elections are never running at full steam. The rate of participation is closer to 50% than 100%. From that follows if a third candidate could get votes from those who usually doesn't vote, it would be a landslide victory. Period.
I have a friend who was telling me about that poll too. Its not really all that impressive. Its predicted correctly, but for a fairly short amount of time. Factor that with the amount of groups making these predictions in the first place and their informed guesses begin to feel fairly weak. As advanced as stats are, this podunk school doesn't have some magic metric that's right all of the time. It's certainly not a strong enough assessment to bet the house on.
If you were a betting man you would've seen the rise of Trump and bet on him winning the republican nominee (not general). I get paid 12x what I put in if he manages that.
Sanders not going to win against Clinton.
Reason I didn't bet anything for Trump in the general is because I'm really not sure at that point if he will win vs Clinton and I still am not very sure.
You're not entirely mistaken. Some statistics indicate that the economy is growing. But honestly I can't really see it. The salaries are not increasing, neither is unemployment decreasing.
Of course to analyze an entire economy you need to focus on many more aspects. A recession most likely will come from Europe and the inept and corrupt EU that is governing it. EU is a ticking time bomb with multiple countries who have a 100% debt to GDP ratio (mostly southern countries).
Its a problem because they have a shared coin. Which means southern countries can't just devalue their coin to attract business and it will pretty much just stay like this. Because everyone is borrowing money from one another there constantly is created new money to keep the lending scheme going. At one point this is bound to go wrong sometime pretty much everyone says the same, though at what point is not known.
You must not frequent social media a lot. The youth of this country are going to take the polls this year. Anyone over 40 won't even be heard. Spend 30 minutes on #BlackTwitter and you'll see exactly which way this country is heading. Whether you like it or not.
But blacks are only 10% of your country.
Clinton or Trump will likely take the presidential as is.
I don't really see anyone else but Trump winning the nominee just because he generates so much more attention and excitement than all the other republican candidates. Plus he didn't even start his advertising campaign yet, all I've seen him do is speech and use twitter for his campaign.
That's what is worrying for Clinton she doesn't really have much to use to make people vote for her. The presidentials are still pretty far away and it seems that Clinton won't really be able to keep this up, especially in the general.
Sanders gets little financial support. This means that people don't believe he has a chance of winning. Some subreddits aren't really an accurate representation. It would be quite funny if he were to win the presidential though.
Too bad 2800 Dollars in Sanders USA will be worth less than 1 Dollar in Trumps USA.
>Sanders gets little financial support.
He has the largest donation bloc. Clinton receive a lot of money from super-pacs. Just like 2008 she lost to Obama. She's also not very popular within the DNC. A lot of people hate her in both side of the aisle. There is a lot of women who hate her because she allowed her husband to cheat on her. That's a huge fucking no no with women. Clinton is still going to get hammer with Benghazi and her husband history of sexual assault. The only reason she is getting a lot of money is because she's sellout. She jumps ship the moment it becomes hot. Sanders who have received more money than Clinton but he doesn't want pac money. But he is getting endorsed by a lot of powerful groups. The reason she is winning in polls its because those polls are conducted through landlines. Tell who uses a landline these days? Most people use their cell phones.
sanders is raising taxes for everybody but the poor, donald is removing taxes for the poor and lower middle class and lowering taxes for everybody else while closing loopholes. sanders needs the middle class' tax money to pay for his free candy seeing as we can't pay for what we spend right now with 60% of our budget coming from the upper class.
I explained that its just something stupid I got from my professor. DESU, it could be arbitrage if you
>Borrow $25,000 @rf
>Take money from someone who wants to bet $25,000 on Hilldog
>Bet $50,000 on Bern
An arbitrage opportunity is one where you get a risk free profit. Yes this can occur with the miss-pricing of goods/services but it needs to be risk free. Betting is inherently a risky task.
A typical arbitrage opportunity is to organize to buy 1 apple for $1 off an individual and sell it for $2 to another individual. You are exploiting market miss-pricing and the transaction will be risk free if you simultaneously lock in contracts with each of the buyers & sellers.
I've seen this play a thousand times. It really does not matter at all who wins, the end result is the same every time. Taxes increase slightly. Always, till the collapse.
Murica has no chance to reduce taxes really. I mean, you have to pay increasing debts in interests, you need all the money possible. Sanders took the good old tax the rich line as people want to believe stuff like this. It's never the government, it's the few rich! Hillary is as ccorrupt as they come, you could might aswell throw a goldman sachs secretary playing a puppet over there.
>Trump will cost the US nine trillion dollars with no plan to earn it back. Trump is making his wealthy friends richer.
Where as Bernie is promising things that are not even close to feasible.
But whatever, FREE THINGS FOR EVERYBODY amirite?
>Nice FUD. That's the exact opposite of his platform.
And where are we going to pull the trillions required to pay for everyone's "free" healthcare, college and $15/hr minimum wage?
The ultra rich will just leave the country because they refuse to get any more of their income stolen.
politico is literally liberal propaganda.
bernies plans are economically infeasable and require a MASSIVE increase in government size,budget, and revenue, which will lead to more taxes, more money printing, and shittier healthcare. his entire policy rides on the chance that the usa becomes single payer
bernie is not an idiot though, he a rotten commie that treats everyone like fools
>It seems to work just fine for every other first world nation
thats becuase they dont pay for their own defense. every country you just mentioned has smaller population then NY OR takes money from the EU like its no ones business
>It seems to work just fine for every other first world nation
But it doesn't.
Those countries either have 1/5th the population of California or they're a mess.
I will tell you right now that Canada's healthcare is a pile of fucking shit, and that's what the leftists in the US are striving for.
the reason the usa does that, is bc it is protecting all those other nations. the EU doesnt spend shit on defense bc if it came to war NATO would step in aka the USA would foot the majority of the bill.
we cannot ever decrease military spending bc our money is getting weaker, we just dont need to increase it for a long time
did you know that our liabilities like social security and other medical things cost us ~41% of our entire budget?
making that bigger will hurt us
this is the troof
>According to you? Or do you have sources with statistics in them?
I was in middle of masturbating so can't be assed to find more indepth stats but here:
But we're fighting bands of goat herders. Because of our nuclear deterrents, it's impossible for a state to seriously pose a threat to the US that wouldn't otherwise end in global nuclear annihilation. Therefore we'll continue fighting bands of goat herders.
Also, I'm not sure what you're on about with currenncy devaluation. Those relative spending figures are PPP-adjusted.
But that puts the US at dead last, behind all the other countries with policies similar to what Sanders is promoting.
and we shouldnt even be fighting the sand people, it should of ended by now, but our failed foreign policy as well as growing hostility geopolitically led us all here. there is no going back.
even if we taxed the 1% by 100% it wouldnt cover our expenses.
i say our currency is devalued bc the majority of it is held outside of our borders+ the federal reserve printed more money since 2006 than all us currency that has ever existed
do you have more source data on that i could read up on?
At 19-1 the odds are fairly awesome, so i can afford to lose,but it never hurts having more base material to base a potential bet on
He's going cut 35$ trillion from the out of control medicare/caid. Tax the derivatives market. Both of these will pay for his policies. Sanders wants a single payer healthcare system, which is what Obama wanted because its literally cheaper than everything else. Obamacare is hijacked lobbyist from insurance and phram companies to benefit them.
>thats becuase they dont pay for their own defense
Source: My ass.
France, UK, Germany, Italy, Western Europe in general spend a lot on defense. Especially the frogs and teafags. Germany maintains the eighth most expensive army in the world. Italy is also in the top 10. We spent too much on the military because we have out of date weapon systems that require a lot of maintenance. This is due to corruption.
>Finance, healthcare and construction are the most heavily regulated industries
Are you high? That's one of the most unregulated industries. And its also one of the main criticism of the failed US Drug war.
Its sort of mismanaged.
This is related to finance and they're sort of unregulated.
>France, UK, Germany, Italy, Western Europe in general spend a lot on defense.
It doesn't matter, since they can't act in unison and have presence outside of Europe, due to a lack of aircraft carriers and other important logistics equipment.
Everything is pegged to the US dollar for a reason: they're the ones who have been delegated with the task of securing trade routes and upholding stability in most parts of the world.
We'll never see a federalist Europe and we'll thus never see a waning USA - chinks and indians are not a threat.
>Sanders wants a single payer healthcare system, which is what Obama wanted because its literally cheaper than everything else.
It's also shittier than your current system, if quality of care is to be considered a valuable factor.
Don't bother linking "studies" about what healthcare systems are superior - they're all funded by the UN and other quasi-socialist institutions, whose interests include socializing everything for the sake of ideology.
>don't give me those annoying "facts"
>my gut opinion is all I need
How's it going Colbert?
They're a politically motivated circle-jerk. Go take a look at the weighted parameters used in these charts.
He's European, isn't he? Nothing else explains why you would link a video of him in this context.
From Betsson. Thinking about putting some on bernie and trump. Fuck hillary
anon might be right. Trump and Hillary are meme candidates. Trump is a lunatic, Hillary is a feminist meme. Bernie is the only sane candidate, however the question is how sane are americas citizens.
As a Russian I hope you elect Trump, lunatics are better for coping with in international politics. However considering american citizens and the overall political situation in the world, Bernie is the best choice.
Why can't you bet on all three? Work with either 3 different sites or whatever, bet 100$ on bernie, shillary,, trump.
As long as the odds are higher than 3:1 (maybe 4:1 if you count taxes) on all of the candidates, so you can't possibly lose money..
Hillary's odds barely offer returns. If you want to diversify, go Bernie and some Reps. But honestly, you'd have to be a fucking idiot to think that Reps have a chance of taking the general
>Spot the dipshit that gets his info solely from TV news and landline polls and internet resources/comments and talking to people all around him
What's your source? /pol/?
If you're so sure about Sanders, why don't you take your savings and bet it all on Sanders? How about a loan as well?
This guy gets it.
bernie wants to pay for it by closing the offshore loophole
donald is exactly the type of president the US needs. there's something very stupid in the fact that he may be president, but i know he'll do a good job. he'll cut the huge military spending, lower taxes, create REAL jobs, increase production, tell china to fuck off with their manufacturing and he'll also pay off the US debt to china. it's like the slogan. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN. he could be the next reagan, but better.
but i'm planning on moving to the US and he's trying to fuck it up for me..
AS I PREDICTED, a few days into January, people are starting to pick up the story: Bernie is winning, and you're running out of time to cash in.
An "investment" of $10,000 in a 20 to 1 odds bet can deliver you $200,000 in rev. You could even turn a paltry $500 into $10,000. $100 to $2000.
Come on /biz/, this is my fucking gift to you. As an American that can't bet on this, PLEASE GO WIN AND BECOME FUCKING RICH.
Oh, and bets are now 20 to 1 at best. Most sites are smartening up.
Advice taken, /biz/.
Worse comes to worse I've spent more money on stupider shit. I can stand to lose $100.
So go Sanders 2016.
there goes nothing i did bet on le bernie... because that's what i want for the united-staters as citizen... i probably should have used my head and spare me this expense since i am poor. thats so typically me: bet on what i want to happen instead of what i think will happen.
Can someone explain why taxes keep going up??? It feels like we pay way too much money to fuel federal spending that nobody really even wants in the first place. I'm not very smart when it comes to politics or business but it seems like we really only need a federal government for military, disaster relief/coast guard/national guard, and for foreign relations and decisions on what to do in world politics.
Serious question. I mean why are there so many federal jobs and positions in DC. Why do they tax the shit out of us to pay for stuff most people don't even want. meanwhile we can't get shit we DO want with our tax money like wider interstates. More money for states to pay for better schools and roads and better public services like EMT's and firefighters and stuff...
Idk man like I said I'm not really super well-versed on all this stuff but the more I think about it the more pissed off i get wondering where all that money goes. Seriously.
Almost everything you just listed are actually State responsibilities except possibly wider interstates. You would be shocked at how little the Federal government actually touches your life on a daily basis.
99% of what you think of being related to government is actually State government
>taking a pic of Ron Paul when he was being suppressed by the media and shooping the pushover cuck commie onto him.
That's what's amazing. Your state provides pretty much everything with a tiny income tax or sales tax or property tax or some combination there of. The federal gov needs a massive tax to provide fuckalll to the average citizen.
This is what I'm talking about. I know that the things I listed in the second part of what I said are state responsibilities. But I'm not asking for much. If you're gonna tax the shit out of me it should at least benefit me right???
I make decent money too, It's EXTREMELY expensive to be 'poor' or make minimum wage or below in this country because of the way taxes are set up. I personally think you shouldn't have to pay taxes if you make below a certain amount. Maybe this could be sort of like a grace period for young adults? Have enough time to work, pay off student loans or save enough to put yourself through school. Then once you reach a certain age, maybe like 30 or 35 or something you'd start paying more depending on what you make? A bank will work with you to find interest rates and monthly payment plans that you can actually pay. If the government is saying it needs a certain amount from a citizen to continue providing services like having access to police and 911 and firefighters then why shouldn't I be able to pay taxes in a way that just lets everyone win???
More money in the pockets of young adults means less debt, which in turn means more spending money. People can have a higher standard of living and there is an increased demand for goods and services and the economy is helped.
I don't think that important and qualified officials should work for free, you gave to create incentive for talented and smart people to take such a stressful job right? I'm not calling everyone in the government competent. OR saying that they should be paid more.
I read an article that broke down the voters for both Obama elections. The statistics showed that most of the reason Obama won was because a lot of people who had never voted before (or were never old enough to vote before those elections) decided it was actually worth it to vote that time. They felt like Obama was worth going out and voting for. PLOT TWIST: Most of these voters were minorites. WHO WOULD HAVE GUESSED. Although I can kind of see why a group of people who feel like 'the system' has never represented them before because 'HE DONT LOOK LIKE ME' never turned out to vote. It's sad to think people can be allowed to vote for that reason. Most Obama supporters couldn't tell you a single thing he ACTUALLY did for them barring the whole Obamacare thing.
I read that Plato was actually what you'd call an 'anti-democrat'. Not that he was against a voting system. But that he thought you should have to prove a certain level of intelligence and thoughtfulness before you could be allowed to vote, and your vote had to be reasonably justified. An IQ test or "written answer" vote would never fly in the US though. Everyone is too fucking stupid for that shit.
The mock vote in question has been accurate in predicting the general election winner since 1972. The surprising thing about it is how it is so accurate a year in advance, when most eventual nominee winners are not #1 in their party. Best example being Obama in 07.
>The mock vote in question has been accurate in predicting the general election winner since 1972
I think one article said the vote had only been held twice before though, or was i miss understanding
it is a bet. and its not 100% built on reality. there is enough distortion in the system to allow for a failing company to have a massive growth cycle that creates a bubble
if you dont understand that tech stocks , commodity futures and even bonds are bets you are a tard and you need to go back to tumblr and defend some pedo or harass some artist
if you are wondering what the bet is with bonds especially if you have locked in rates its if
1)the country you have bonds for defaults or not
2)if they will honor the locked in rates. even america made a cut off for old bonds a few years ago to avoid paying full mature on long term bonds
3)if their currency value will increase or decrease. 0.5% gains from interest and maybe 2% loss in currency value isnt a good combo on a short term bond
Sanders winning the Primary is possible, but unlikely.
He'll probably win NH, but struggle in Iowa, might do ok in Nevada, but will wipe out in SC. Then Super Tuesday will come along, mostly Southern states where the average Dem primary voter is black and poor, whereas the average Sanders supporter is white and rich. He'll probably wipe out there and that'll be the end of him.
If people have more savings and don't need to get in debt, how do banks bleed them for interest and fees all their lives? The banks are trying to make billions upon billions, not simply millions.
And if the banks aren't worth trillions of dollars, who's going to buy politicians? We're trying to run an economy here pal
If people don't need to take out loans as often and have more cash readily available won't they be more inclined to justify spending it? Doesn't that spending boost the economy???
I mean fuck, I know that debt is a big industry but it's pretty sad to think selling money is THE industry.
There's a lot of socialists in the US these days, amongst the younger crowd. The word doesn't have the same connotations as it did before.
Still, It'll be hard to beat Clinton, but just because he says he's a socialist doesn't mean that's the reason he's out.
I hate Hillary but your argument is retarded beyond belief
>She's also not very popular within the DNC
The DNC is run by people who used to be on her staff lel
>There is a lot of women who hate her because she allowed her husband to cheat on her.
she actually campaigned nationwide after that happened and almost became a feminist status symbol
>Clinton is still going to get hammer with Benghazi
Republicans have already apologized for acting immaturely about Benghazi, you'd hear about it every 2 seconds on network tv otherwise
>But he is getting endorsed by a lot of powerful groups
lel, yeah public labor unions whose survival are literally dependent on the policies that Bernie wants to implement
>Tell who uses a landline these days?
Baby boomers, the people who, y'know, are gonna be responsible for the winner of this election and the next 3-4 most likely.
Welcome to the last 30 years. We don't trade goods, we trade debt. It takes years for the average Joes to build a modest savings. During that time, they can't spend. Everyone shits the bed if retails sales are down for even a quarter, let alone years. So the powers that be would rather you borrow and borrow and spend now, getting further into debt (banks) to keep the economy, employment rate and sales tax ticking over (government).
It's all short to mid-term thinking. Survival now, fuck later. Governments of the day don't care if the country is better of in 50 years times, they need to be re-elected tomorrow. The economy that stops spending in the short-term falls behind other global economies who keep borrowing and spending. We're all in a massive race to the bottom.
No one is interested in you saving and investing. It's a lot harder to make money out of you that way. That's why it's so important you do. They can take a little capital gains tax but it's a lot less than bleeding you for interest on a massive 30 year mortgage and 15% on a credit card and car loans AND income tax AND sales tax. The less you spend, the less they can bleed you.