COMMODITIES Thread

I'm not sure whether to bet against high grade coffee. I'm definitely inclined to bet against oil. Still making picks....

2015:

Sold off my double leveraged oil bull shares at a loss of 1.8k

Still holding a platinum etf that is down about 30%

>>1020921
So how would you go about making a long term play for energy? I'm talking 10+ years, oil prices cannot stay this low for much more than a few years because these are below cost prices. I was thinking of watching a few oil companies and getting in at a good price but I'm worried about the amount of debt a lot of them are in and whether they will be able to stick around through a long period of low prices.

Petrol is proper fucked. I'm thinking hard about going short.

>>1020934

I'd go short on coffee, at least the top shelf stuff. It's not my main commodity though.

>>1020961

Three things.

>Asking about making a 10+ year long play in a COMMODITIES thread
>If you want to make this play you're best off investing in Haliburton and the like because you're wrong, most oil companies have actually been shedding debt rather than putting it on.
>Don't make that play, Haliburton tracks oil pretty closely, and imo oil is fucked long-term. Green energy eat up more and more of the market, OPEC is going to pieces, and there is an active price war going on in the Middle East that is only likely to escalate.

>>1020959

Iktf

Another Stanford lecture

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qx8nYfpXO6U

>>1020961
XOM and CVX are your safest bets. Large, integrated companies, solid balance sheets, have histories of weathering previous busts. Oil is a boom/bust business, choose companies with a track record of weathering the downturns. My speculative play for oil is RDS.

>>1021027
>and there is an active price war going on in the Middle East that is only likely to escalate
What do you not understand about the phrase 'long term'?
Price wars don't last 10 years and present possibly the best time to buy in
Fuck you're retarded.

>>1020961
>So how would you go about making a long term play for energy?

With it and mining I am buying CAT now and collecting the div.

If you are going oil you might consider NOV. They still make money maintaining existing wells.

I'm doubling down on silver, it will shoot up after next crash. buy buy buy

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>mfw everyone blames Saudi Arabia when they had no real choice

>>1021519

Reading comprehension faggot.

>only likely to escalate
>escalate
>in conjunction with green energy eating up the market and the death of OPEC and increasing pressure on Russia
>pressure for more fuel efficiency on the rise not strongly tied to the price of oil

A ten year play on oil at this stage is fucking stupid. Maybe expect it to briefly rally down the road before tanking, maybe. Also this is a FUCKING COMMODITIES THREAD! Gee, I didn't know that anon could afford to pay random ass margin calls for ten years, or that the market was remotely thick for oil to be delivered on a month in 2026.

>contentious people starting shit because of their fantasies of oil maintaining it's market share a decade from now

shit commodities going lower across the board nuff said

>>1021562
Possible.
Coal is dead everywhere but china, I wouldn't be surprised if the same doesn't happen to oil in 15-20 years.

many people were scaremongering about peak oil and how world cant run without oil just 3 years ago and now people are like "age of oil is over lol, west is turning to other energy sources"

>>1021562
Nah, but thanks for your pessimism.

If everyone was sure oil would bounce back it wouldn't be sah cheap.

>>1021599
But she didn't say anything along those lines. What are you talking about? Did you invent a person to argue with?

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>>1021662
>If everyone was sure oil would bounce back it wouldn't be sah cheap.
I liked that observation, anon. Says quite a lot in a few words.

Lots of short-sightedness in this thread. Oil is cheap because there is huge uncertainty in the market. Nobody knows how long the glut will last and because of this it's hard to predict who will survive. Now, I'm not going to make the next step and say oil won't bounce back. We're still years out from widespread alternative energy sources imo. There simply isn't the political and social willpower to push it right now, and the market pressure to do so is even less with oil so cheap.

Furthermore, you think the oil majors don't know that they're going to have to change their model at some point? If you're thinking about it, lord knows they're thinking about it too. Look for large, companies with good leadership and diversified profit streams. Look for companies that have an action plan in place and are making exploratory moves towards developing energy sources. You think Exxon is just gonna sit on their hands and say, "well guys it was a good run, but people just don't want oil anymore. Let's go down with the ship." Fuck no! They're going to start gobbling up the smaller energy companies in the emerging alternatives markets to capitalize on the shift.

Long XOM, CVX

I'm long uranium and holding a small position in a Jr. Gold mining stock. WHEN commodities start to turn around Brazil, Canada and Australia should get a huge boost. Could be a while. Not holding much hope for 2016.