>>1020921 So how would you go about making a long term play for energy? I'm talking 10+ years, oil prices cannot stay this low for much more than a few years because these are below cost prices. I was thinking of watching a few oil companies and getting in at a good price but I'm worried about the amount of debt a lot of them are in and whether they will be able to stick around through a long period of low prices.
>Asking about making a 10+ year long play in a COMMODITIES thread >If you want to make this play you're best off investing in Haliburton and the like because you're wrong, most oil companies have actually been shedding debt rather than putting it on. >Don't make that play, Haliburton tracks oil pretty closely, and imo oil is fucked long-term. Green energy eat up more and more of the market, OPEC is going to pieces, and there is an active price war going on in the Middle East that is only likely to escalate.
>>1020961 XOM and CVX are your safest bets. Large, integrated companies, solid balance sheets, have histories of weathering previous busts. Oil is a boom/bust business, choose companies with a track record of weathering the downturns. My speculative play for oil is RDS.
>>1021027 >and there is an active price war going on in the Middle East that is only likely to escalate What do you not understand about the phrase 'long term'? Price wars don't last 10 years and present possibly the best time to buy in Fuck you're retarded.
>only likely to escalate >escalate >in conjunction with green energy eating up the market and the death of OPEC and increasing pressure on Russia >pressure for more fuel efficiency on the rise not strongly tied to the price of oil
A ten year play on oil at this stage is fucking stupid. Maybe expect it to briefly rally down the road before tanking, maybe. Also this is a FUCKING COMMODITIES THREAD! Gee, I didn't know that anon could afford to pay random ass margin calls for ten years, or that the market was remotely thick for oil to be delivered on a month in 2026.
>contentious people starting shit because of their fantasies of oil maintaining it's market share a decade from now
Lots of short-sightedness in this thread. Oil is cheap because there is huge uncertainty in the market. Nobody knows how long the glut will last and because of this it's hard to predict who will survive. Now, I'm not going to make the next step and say oil won't bounce back. We're still years out from widespread alternative energy sources imo. There simply isn't the political and social willpower to push it right now, and the market pressure to do so is even less with oil so cheap.
Furthermore, you think the oil majors don't know that they're going to have to change their model at some point? If you're thinking about it, lord knows they're thinking about it too. Look for large, companies with good leadership and diversified profit streams. Look for companies that have an action plan in place and are making exploratory moves towards developing energy sources. You think Exxon is just gonna sit on their hands and say, "well guys it was a good run, but people just don't want oil anymore. Let's go down with the ship." Fuck no! They're going to start gobbling up the smaller energy companies in the emerging alternatives markets to capitalize on the shift.
I'm long uranium and holding a small position in a Jr. Gold mining stock. WHEN commodities start to turn around Brazil, Canada and Australia should get a huge boost. Could be a while. Not holding much hope for 2016.
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