Hi everyone. I'm a computer science phd student and I've developed a financial markets prediction method that has consistently generated profit for more than 5000 hours in different currency exchange markets. The profits were calculated by doing a simulation.
I was writing a paper to publish the method, but then I began thinking if this is the correct thing to do. What is your opinion?
Before posting a reply, it proved to be profitable for 30,000 hours, not 5,000, in 6 different currency exchange markets.
How about publishing it and use it for myself? Use it myself to trade (I'm actually afraid of this, and I now think this is a bad idea)
Now, should I sell it or sell the predictions?
why would you sell an unproven algorithm to someone, only to watch the make insane amounts of money off of it? if it actually works why not keep it secret and make insane amounts money, then publish it on your deathbed and explain why it works
Why would you even tell someone about it? Get rich and let someone discover ot after that... i work in the financial industry and every day i doubt if it does any better to the society.. you are an inteligent being, the money is better kept in your poket than the big banks
Why not use it yourself? If you get anybody else involved they might try ro fuck you over. You would prob need to have decent knowledge about the topic to even write an algoritgm in the first place, so go and become a legend! Once in a lifetime opportunity. They will make movies about you when you die.
No, you didn't. You're full of shit.
Also, stop watching "Limitless."
You have done something revolutionary. No one has ever done anything remotely like it before.
Oh wait. You're just one of the millions of whiz kids who thinks they have something that no one, in the wide world of finance full of brilliant minds, has ever come up with before. What did you do, back-adjust your parameters until it fits historical data perfectly? Guess what, your predictions will fail spectacularly tomorrow.
If you want to see how your algorithms would actually perform, create an account on Quantopian and try it out.
One reason to involve someone else is to get their money to invest with. I could use my money alone, but I guess that would take more time to get a considerable amount of income.
I now really feel like hiding my method and not mentioning it to anyone. I think I needed other people to agree with that idea to make myself more comfortable with my actions.
Hum... no, I know how to test a time series prediction algorithm. In most of the experiments I used 3000 hours for "training" (I don't use neural networks or a "trainable" algorithm, but it's a similar idea to training), and I tested it for 2000 hours. Profits were consistent.
I've done some other experiments where I trained with as little as 1000 hours and tested it with 4000 hours.
It has also been successful with 15-min timeframe data, and 30-min data.
Well, getting 5000% profit wouldn't be possible I think. As far as I know, you need to get some "borrowed money" or... leverage I think, and you need money to back your losses. Also, my method isn't a 100% win. I'd say it wins 80% of the time.
There are thousands and thousands of people in the finance world who make a living from this. People far more skilled and experiences than you. How can you seriously think you have come up with something vastly superior that nobody has ever done before?
I can't understand why you are hoping for this.
Well, it would be different because I spent hours searching for papers which described a similar method, and I couldn't find one.
On the other hand, it would be revolutionary because, if it works, it means financial markets could somewhat be explained with a mathematical model, the efficient market hypothesis would turn out to be false, and because we could begin understanding the interaction of humans in the financial markets.
I hope this clears your doubts.
Wow, if this is real, you have the power to stop the Chinese on their quest for world domination. Although desu, it sounds like the kind of thing where the CIA, NSA, MI6, FSB and all the goverment assasins will hunt you down and kill you before you make a dime. If i were you, i would microwave, burn and sink all your research to the bottom of the sea. Saved your life
Thank you very much for your response.
I'm just a computer science PhD student, but I have no intention of proving this to you, and it would be a really careless action.
I did a quick read of what market impact is on Wikipedia, and I have the following question: wouldn't I need to trade a huge amount of money to make a market impact?
I am in no way a professional in finance, and that's why I really appreciate your input. I think my next step will be to trade on real markets. Would I need a real account with real money to have conclusive information about my method? I assume a demo account would not suffice.
Lastly, I had to look for the meaning of "shilling for information." I found this definition on Urban Dictionary:
"A person engaged in covert advertising. The shill attempts to spread buzz by personally endorsing the product in public forums with the pretense of sincerity, when in fact he is being paid for his services."
You can rest assured that I won't try to convince someone from 4chan to invest on my idea. My first options would be close friends and people I trust.
HFT wouldn't be the same as scalping? I wouldn't be scalping, my method performs a trade every 1-3 hours.
Again, thank you very very much for your kind response.
it would only crash the markets if the markets were predictable, but they aren't, so this shouldn't happen. If the paper got published and it was successful beforehand, the markets would adapt and it would lose it's dollar to prediction properties, if for no other reason than there will be other people out there betting with it as well as against it (because it isn't perfect). For example, hedge funds are looking for near-instantaneous low level algorithms that can work instantaneously before other firms algorithms can hit the market. It's doubtful that a CS PhD student trolling 4chan has developed something that rivals this. Not impossible, but with probability one I wouldn't bet on it.